Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Bowling Green at Ohio, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Ohio beat Bowling Green 35–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:59 left): Return touchdown by Ohio, worth 21 points of win probability to Ohio.
Final
 Bowling Green Falcons | 20 |
|---|---|
 Ohio Bobcats | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Ohio lucky · −38 Bowling Green
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 4, Ohio wins 6.
- 1 BGSU 56 OHIO 31
- 2 BGSU 52 OHIO 37
- 3 BGSU 38 OHIO 30
- 4 BGSU 34 OHIO 31
- 5 BGSU 34 OHIO 37
- 6 BGSU 24 OHIO 30
- 7 BGSU 14 OHIO 24
- 8 BGSU 24 OHIO 38
- 9 BGSU 9 OHIO 30
- 10 BGSU 35 OHIO 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bowling Green wins 38% of them, Ohio 62%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 10.7% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Ohio by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Ohio by 9–16 | 15.0% |
| Ohio by 17+ | 25.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kleather, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Kleather, 33 yds made · 85% expected
- B. Peacock, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
Penalties: Bowling Green 5 for 35 yards, Ohio 4 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:59 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yards | +2% OHIO +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:02 | Holding on Ohio, 0 yards | +1% BGSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:02 | Holding on Ohio, 10 yards | 0% BGSU 0.0 pts |
| Q2 10:02 | Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:30 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 0 yards | 0% OHIO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 4:30 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 10 yards | +1% OHIO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offside on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:42 | Delay of Game on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% OHIO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | False Start on Ohio, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BGSU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Ohio’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:50 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% OHIO | BGSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:59 | Penalty on Bowling Green, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by OhioSpecial teams | +21% OHIO | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:02 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedOhio converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedOhio was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedOhio converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedHolding on Ohio, 0 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Ohio, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% BGSU | BGSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:30 | Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% OHIO | BGSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Ohio was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% BGSU | OHIO: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 8:38 | Ohio fumbled and Bowling Green recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% BGSU | OHIO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:09 | Bowling Green fumbled and Ohio recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% OHIO | BGSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 11:29 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedOhio fumbled and Bowling Green recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% BGSU | BGSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bowling Green 0% · Ohio 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio by 15
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for Bowling Green
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio by 22.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bowling Green 38% · Ohio 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Bowling Green · 
Ohio
More from Week 5 2025
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Western Michigan WMU 47–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU 24–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Akron at Toledo TOL 45–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner