Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Akron at Toledo, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Akron 45–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 92% favorite.
Final
 Akron Zips | 3 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Toledo about even · 0 Akron
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Akron wins 0, Toledo wins 10.
- 1 AKR 0 TOL 35
- 2 AKR 0 TOL 42
- 3 AKR 3 TOL 48
- 4 AKR 3 TOL 52
- 5 AKR 0 TOL 52
- 6 AKR 0 TOL 55
- 7 AKR 0 TOL 58
- 8 AKR 10 TOL 70
- 9 AKR 0 TOL 65
- 10 AKR 0 TOL 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Akron wins 0% of them, Toledo 100%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Akron by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Akron by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Akron by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 98.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- O. Wiley, 39 yds made · 71% expected
- D. Cunanan, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- D. Cunanan, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
Penalties: Akron 3 for 28 yards, Toledo 3 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:34 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:04 | Offside on Akron, 1 yard, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% TOL +1.9 pts |
| Q2 13:35 | Face Mask on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% AKR +1.4 pts |
| Q2 3:04 | Holding on Akron, 22 yards | 0% TOL +2.1 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% AKR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Toledo, 25 yards | 0% AKR +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:40 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% TOL | AKR: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:54 | Akron converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +0% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:38 | Akron was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% TOL | AKR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:13 | Toledo was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% AKR | TOL: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:34 | Delay of Game on Akron, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 14:04 | Offside on Akron, 1 yard, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +0% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 13:35 | Face Mask on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% AKR | AKR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 4:38 | Akron converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +0% AKR | AKR: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Akron 0% · Toledo 100%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 42
- Luck in points
- 3.2 for Akron
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 45.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Akron 0% · Toledo 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Akron · 
Toledo
More from Week 5 2025
- Bowling Green at Ohio OHIO 35–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Western Michigan WMU 47–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU 24–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner