Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Central Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 24–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Central Michigan wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Central Michigan was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 13 |
|---|---|
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Central Michigan about even · −10 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 1, Central Michigan wins 9.
- 1 EMU 34 CMU 28
- 2 EMU 24 CMU 27
- 3 EMU 17 CMU 24
- 4 EMU 14 CMU 24
- 5 EMU 21 CMU 35
- 6 EMU 17 CMU 34
- 7 EMU 17 CMU 35
- 8 EMU 13 CMU 36
- 9 EMU 0 CMU 28
- 10 EMU 7 CMU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Michigan wins 10% of them, Central Michigan 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 48.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 41 yds made · 72% expected
- R. Kessinger, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Graham, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
- C. Graham, 22 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Kessinger, 40 yds missed · 74% expected
Penalties: Eastern Michigan 3 for 30 yards, Central Michigan 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:46 | Illegal Block on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +2% EMU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | +3% CMU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:40 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | +1% CMU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:01 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CMU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:27 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 15 yards | +6% EMU +4.5 pts |
| Q4 12:00 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 10 yards | +2% EMU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Central Michigan’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:57 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:37 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +4% CMU | EMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on Eastern Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% CMU | CMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 12:27 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:45 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% CMU | EMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 7:02 | Central Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% EMU | CMU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:43 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% CMU | EMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 0:22 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +5% EMU | EMU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Michigan 0% · Central Michigan 100%
- Final margin
- Central Michigan by 11
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Central Michigan by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Michigan 10% · Central Michigan 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Eastern Michigan · 
Central Michigan
More from Week 5 2025
- Bowling Green at Ohio OHIO 35–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- UConn at Buffalo CONN 20–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Western Michigan WMU 47–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Akron at Toledo TOL 45–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner