Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
UConn at Buffalo, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
UConn beat Buffalo 20–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Buffalo had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Buffalo.
Before kickoff UConn was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:11 left): C. Freeman made a 44-yard field goal, worth 12 points of win probability to Buffalo.
Final
 UConn Huskies | 20 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bulls | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 UConn lucky · −29 Buffalo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UConn wins 7, Buffalo wins 3.
- 1 CONN 38 BUF 7
- 2 CONN 23 BUF 0
- 3 CONN 31 BUF 14
- 4 CONN 30 BUF 17
- 5 CONN 16 BUF 6
- 6 CONN 30 BUF 24
- 7 CONN 17 BUF 14
- 8 CONN 24 BUF 27
- 9 CONN 16 BUF 24
- 10 CONN 14 BUF 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UConn wins 71% of them, Buffalo 29%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UConn by 17+ | 27.5% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 5.8% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Buffalo by 17+ | 4.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Howes, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- C. Freeman, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- C. Freeman, 44 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: UConn 0 for 0 yards, Buffalo 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:18 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CONN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:24 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CONN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:59 | Holding on Buffalo, 10 yards | +4% CONN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 6:30 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CONN +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Buffalo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 51%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:14 | Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% CONN | BUF: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 11:54 | UConn converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedUConn fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:56 | Buffalo converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +7% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:06 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% BUF | CONN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 9:59 | Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% CONN | BUF: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 9:48 | Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +7% CONN | BUF: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:04 | Buffalo converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% BUF | BUF: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:11 | C. Freeman made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him | +12% BUF | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UConn 35% · Buffalo 65%
- Final margin
- UConn by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for UConn
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buffalo by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UConn 71% · Buffalo 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
UConn · 
Buffalo
More from Week 5 2025
- Bowling Green at Ohio OHIO 35–20 · replay 62% for the winner
- San Diego State at Northern Illinois SDSU 6–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Western Michigan WMU 47–14 · replay 88% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan CMU 24–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Miami (OH) M-OH 38–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Arkansas ND 56–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Akron at Toledo TOL 45–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Missouri MIZ 42–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner