Lindenwood at Miami (OH), Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Lindenwood Lions	0
Miami (OH) RedHawks	38

September 27, 2025 · Yager Stadium · Closing line: Miami (OH) −22.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index 0 Miami (OH) about even · 0 Lindenwood

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lindenwood wins 0, Miami (OH) wins 10.

1 LIN 13 M-OH 23
2 LIN 14 M-OH 31
3 LIN 10 M-OH 31
4 LIN 12 M-OH 38
5 LIN 0 M-OH 31
6 LIN 16 M-OH 49
7 LIN 3 M-OH 39
8 LIN 6 M-OH 45
9 LIN 10 M-OH 55
10 LIN 0 M-OH 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lindenwood wins 0% of them, Miami (OH) 100%. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 38.

Actual: Miami (OH) by 38 494235282114707142128354249 ← Lindenwood win by Miami (OH) win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Lindenwood by 17+	0.0%
Lindenwood by 9–16	0.0%
Lindenwood by 1–8	0.3%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Miami (OH) by 1–8	1.3%
Miami (OH) by 9–16	3.5%
Miami (OH) by 17+	94.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +1% LIN

Pre-snap flags +1% LIN

All luck +2% LIN

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to Lindenwood: the final margin was Miami (OH) by 38, without the luck Miami (OH) by 41.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

D. Dzioban, 33 yds made · 86% expected
D. Dzioban, 25 yds missed · 94% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lindenwood 2 for 23 yards, Miami (OH) 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 11:28	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% LIN +0.4 pts
Q1 6:28	Offside on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% LIN +0.9 pts
Q1 0:49	Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yards	+1% LIN +1.6 pts
Q2 0:33	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% LIN +0.4 pts
Q3 12:19	Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards	0% M-OH +1.1 pts
Q3 6:35	Personal Foul on Miami (OH), 15 yards	0% LIN +3.0 pts
Q3 3:45	Delay of Game on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% LIN +1.1 pts
Q3 2:12	Intentional Grounding on Lindenwood, 13 yards	0% M-OH +2.9 pts

When it happened

Miami (OH)’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Miami (OH) 50% Lindenwood Q1Q2Q3Q4 14567

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Miami (OH) was ahead in it, below while Lindenwood was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 11:41	Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected	+1% LIN	M-OH: Punt
2	Q1 9:42	Miami (OH) was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected	+1% LIN	M-OH: Punt
3	Q1 8:26	Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+1% M-OH	LIN: Punt
4	Q1 8:21	Return touchdown by Miami (OH)Special teams	+2% M-OH	M-OH: Punt
5	Q1 5:30	Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected	+1% M-OH	LIN: Punt
6	Q1 2:59	Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected	+1% LIN	M-OH: Punt
7	Q1 0:49	Pass Interference on Miami (OH), 15 yardsJudgment calls	+1% LIN	LIN: Punt
8	Q1 0:15	Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected	+1% M-OH	LIN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Lindenwood · Miami (OH)

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