Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
Cincinnati at Kansas, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
Cincinnati beat Kansas 37–34, but the replays lean toward Kansas: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Cincinnati.
Before kickoff Kansas was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): Kansas fumbled and recovered it, worth 22 points of win probability to Kansas.
Final
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 37 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Cincinnati very lucky · −70 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cincinnati wins 3, Kansas wins 7.
- 1 CIN 48 KU 28
- 2 CIN 31 KU 21
- 3 CIN 38 KU 35
- 4 CIN 21 KU 23
- 5 CIN 27 KU 31
- 6 CIN 41 KU 49
- 7 CIN 38 KU 49
- 8 CIN 7 KU 24
- 9 CIN 20 KU 42
- 10 CIN 17 KU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cincinnati wins 30% of them, Kansas 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 6.9% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 27.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- L. Marjan, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- L. Marjan, 35 yds made · 82% expected
- S. Rusnak, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- S. Rusnak, 24 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Cincinnati 8 for 100 yards, Kansas 5 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:50 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% KU +2.8 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Illegal Block on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +1% KU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:23 | Roughing the Passer on Cincinnati, 6 yards | +2% KU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:23 | Delay of Game on Kansas, 4 yards · pre-snap | +5% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Illegal Touching on Kansas, 26 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CIN +2.2 pts |
| Q3 9:49 | Targeting on Kansas, 7 yards | +2% CIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:37 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% KU +2.8 pts |
| Q3 8:44 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% KU +3.1 pts |
| Q3 2:04 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +8% KU +2.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 6 yards | +6% KU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% KU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:02 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CIN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 1:45 | Illegal Touching on Cincinnati, 38 yards, wiping out the play | +21% KU +2.7 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 9:37 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% KU | KU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 2:04 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedHolding on Cincinnati, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +12% KU | CIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 15:00 | Kansas converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expectedPass Interference on Cincinnati, 6 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Kansas, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +11% KU | KU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 12:08 | Cincinnati converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expectedKansas fumbled and Cincinnati recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 8:02 | Kansas was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedKansas converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedHolding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% CIN | KU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:45 | Cincinnati converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedIllegal Touching on Cincinnati, 38 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +18% KU | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:08 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedCincinnati converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | Kansas converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedKansas fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +22% KU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cincinnati 45% · Kansas 55%
- Final margin
- Cincinnati by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for Cincinnati
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kansas by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cincinnati 30% · Kansas 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Cincinnati · 
Kansas
More from Week 5 2025
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado BYU 24–21 · replay 57% for the winner
- Arizona at Iowa State ISU 39–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UCF at Kansas State KSU 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- TCU at Arizona State ASU 27–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Utah at West Virginia UTAH 48–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner