Week 5 2025 · September 27, 2025
BYU at Colorado, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Colorado 24–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, BYU wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff BYU was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:00 left): BYU converted 3rd & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to BYU.
Final
 BYU Cougars | 24 |
|---|---|
 Colorado Buffaloes | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 BYU lucky · −43 Colorado
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. BYU wins 6, Colorado wins 4.
- 1 BYU 37 COLO 7
- 2 BYU 35 COLO 17
- 3 BYU 38 COLO 24
- 4 BYU 38 COLO 28
- 5 BYU 28 COLO 21
- 6 BYU 31 COLO 28
- 7 BYU 19 COLO 21
- 8 BYU 19 COLO 24
- 9 BYU 17 COLO 28
- 10 BYU 3 COLO 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
BYU wins 57% of them, Colorado 43%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| BYU by 17+ | 18.1% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Colorado by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Colorado by 9–16 | 11.2% |
| Colorado by 17+ | 8.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Ferrin, 28 yds made · 94% expected
- W. Ferrin, 55 yds missed · 51% expected
Penalties: BYU 6 for 34 yards, Colorado 6 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:59 | Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yards | +5% BYU +2.2 pts |
| Q1 5:21 | Face Mask on BYU, 5 yards | +2% COLO +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:50 | Delay of Game on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 13:21 | Illegal Substitution on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:26 | Delay of Game on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BYU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 8:42 | Holding on BYU, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +4% COLO +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Holding on Colorado, 5 yards | 0% BYU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 17 yards | +2% BYU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:52 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:36 | Pass Interference on Colorado, 15 yards | +4% BYU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:54 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% COLO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:33 | Holding on Colorado, 10 yards | 0% BYU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Colorado’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:59 | Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% BYU | BYU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 6:31 | BYU was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +7% COLO | BYU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 12:53 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +5% COLO | BYU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 5:30 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% COLO | BYU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 5:26 | BYU converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +8% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:08 | Colorado was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% BYU | COLO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 8:07 | W. Ferrin missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before | +9% COLO | BYU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 5:00 | BYU converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +10% BYU | BYU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
BYU 49% · Colorado 51%
- Final margin
- BYU by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for BYU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colorado by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- BYU 57% · Colorado 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
BYU · 
Colorado
More from Week 5 2025
- Cincinnati at Kansas CIN 37–34 · replay 30% for the winner
- Houston at Oregon State HOU 27–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Arizona at Iowa State ISU 39–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- UCF at Kansas State KSU 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- TCU at Arizona State ASU 27–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Baylor at Oklahoma State BAY 45–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Utah at West Virginia UTAH 48–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Hawai'i at Air Force HAW 44–35 · replay 5% for the winner
- Louisville at Pittsburgh LOU 34–27 · replay 11% for the winner
- California at Boston College CAL 28–24 · replay 28% for the winner
- Marshall at Louisiana UL 54–51 · replay 29% for the winner
- Oregon at Penn State ORE 30–24 · replay 39% for the winner