Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
BYU Cougars: luck and expected wins
BYU is 3–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 62nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often BYU wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Utah Tech | W 63–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Arizona | W 28–17 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 3 | @ Colorado State | W 41–23 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | BYU win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at TCU |  BYU by 4.1 | 60% |
| Week 6 · Oct 9 | vs Iowa State | BYU by 6.4 | 65% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Notre Dame |  Notre Dame by 11.5 | 24% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at UCF | BYU by 4.8 | 61% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Arizona State | BYU by 11.6 | 76% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Utah |  Utah by 12.7 | 22% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Baylor | BYU by 11.2 | 75% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Kansas | BYU by 10.0 | 72% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Cincinnati | BYU by 10.9 | 74% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in BYU’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.06 | −0.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.03 | +2.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins BYU takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Iowa State | W 41–27 | 26% | +74 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Cincinnati | W 26–14 | 36% | +64 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Utah | W 24–21 | 43% | +57 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Colorado | W 24–21 | 57% | +43 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Arizona | W 33–27 | 63% | +37 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses BYU would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 15 | vs Texas Tech | L 7–34 | 16% | −16 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Texas Tech | L 7–29 | 5% | −5 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11–2 | 7.8 | +3.2 | 3–0 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Portland State | W 69–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Stanford | W 27–3 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 4 | @ East Carolina | W 34–13 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 5 | @ Colorado | W 24–21 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 6 | vs West Virginia | W 38–24 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 7 | @ Arizona | W 33–27 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 8 | vs Utah | W 24–21 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 9 | @ Iowa State | W 41–27 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 11 | @ Texas Tech | L 7–29 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 12 | vs TCU | W 44–13 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 13 | @ Cincinnati | W 26–14 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 14 | vs UCF | W 41–21 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 15 | vs Texas Tech | L 7–34 | 16% | −16 |
| Pop-Tarts Bowl | vs Georgia Tech | W 25–21 | 82% | +18 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12:
Arizona, 
Arizona State, 
Baylor, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, 
Iowa State, 
Kansas, 
Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, 
Texas Tech, 
UCF, Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does BYU have in 2026?
3–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.8 wins.
Was BYU lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 62nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was BYU’s luckiest season?
2025: 11–2 from play worth 7.8 wins, +3.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–0 from play worth 2.8 (+0.2).