luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Utah Tech at BYU, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

BYU beat Utah Tech 63–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff BYU was a 100% favorite.

Final

Utah Tech Trailblazers 7
BYU Cougars 63

September 5, 2026 · LaVell Edwards Stadium · Closing line: BYU −50.5

Luck index 0 BYU about even · 0 Utah Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Utah Tech wins 0, BYU wins 10.

  1. 1 UTU 7 BYU 35
  2. 2 UTU 10 BYU 45
  3. 3 UTU 7 BYU 48
  4. 4 UTU 6 BYU 50
  5. 5 UTU 0 BYU 49
  6. 6 UTU 0 BYU 52
  7. 7 UTU 7 BYU 62
  8. 8 UTU 0 BYU 58
  9. 9 UTU 7 BYU 69
  10. 10 UTU 3 BYU 73

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Utah Tech wins 0% of them, BYU 100%. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 56.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Utah Tech by 17+0.0%
Utah Tech by 9–160.0%
Utah Tech by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
BYU by 1–80.4%
BYU by 9–161.8%
BYU by 17+97.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to Utah Tech: the final margin was BYU by 56, without the luck BYU by 56.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Utah Tech 2 for 15 yards, BYU 5 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:42 Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTU +2.0 pts
Q2 10:23 Personal Foul on BYU, 15 yards 0% UTU +0.9 pts
Q2 6:05 Holding on BYU, 10 yards 0% UTU +1.7 pts
Q3 8:50 False Start on Utah Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BYU +1.3 pts
Q3 5:32 Pass Interference on BYU, 11 yards 0% UTU +3.3 pts
Q4 14:07 Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UTU +0.3 pts
Q4 13:19 Holding on Utah Tech, 10 yards 0% BYU +0.6 pts

When it happened

BYU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while BYU was ahead in it, below while Utah Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:05 BYU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +0% BYU BYU: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:34 Utah Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +0% BYU UTU: Punt
3 Q1 9:28 BYU converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +0% BYU BYU: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:51 BYU converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +0% BYU BYU: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:53 BYU converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +0% BYU BYU: Punt
6 Q1 2:35 Utah Tech was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% BYU UTU: Punt
7 Q1 1:34 BYU was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +0% BYU BYU: Punt
8 Q2 10:40 Utah Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +0% BYU UTU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Utah Tech 0% · BYU 100%

Final margin
BYU by 56
Luck in points
0.2 for Utah Tech
Luck-adjusted margin
BYU by 56.2
Replay with same day's form
Utah Tech 0% · BYU 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Utah Tech · BYU

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