luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Idaho State at Utah State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Idaho State beat Utah State 29–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Utah State wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 23 points of win probability to Idaho State.

Before kickoff Utah State was an 84% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:22 left): Utah State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to Idaho State.

Final

Idaho State Bengals 29
Utah State Aggies 17

September 5, 2026 · Maverik Stadium · Closing line: Utah State −15.5

Luck index +84 Idaho State very lucky · −84 Utah State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Idaho State wins 2, Utah State wins 8.

  1. 1 IDST 18 USU 7
  2. 2 IDST 19 USU 16
  3. 3 IDST 6 USU 9
  4. 4 IDST 6 USU 10
  5. 5 IDST 6 USU 13
  6. 6 IDST 3 USU 13
  7. 7 IDST 13 USU 27
  8. 8 IDST 0 USU 17
  9. 9 IDST 10 USU 30
  10. 10 IDST 3 USU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Idaho State wins 16% of them, Utah State 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Idaho State by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Idaho State by 17+1.3%
Idaho State by 9–164.3%
Idaho State by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.5%
Utah State by 1–824.9%
Utah State by 9–1621.3%
Utah State by 17+37.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to Idaho State: the final margin was Idaho State by 12, without the luck Idaho State by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Lindberg, 28 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Lindberg, 48 yds made · 58% expected
  • K. Afrookhteh, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
  • M. Lindberg, 25 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Afrookhteh, 28 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Lindberg, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • M. Lindberg, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Idaho State 8 for 71 yards, Utah State 13 for 93 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:56 Face Mask on Utah State, 8 yards +2% IDST +1.2 pts
Q1 9:07 Delay of Game on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.2 pts
Q1 7:43 Pass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yards +2% USU +1.6 pts
Q1 5:16 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards +2% IDST +1.4 pts
Q1 0:40 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Idaho State, 15 yards +2% USU +1.6 pts
Q1 0:23 Offside on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USU +0.5 pts
Q2 13:38 Illegal Substitution on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IDST +0.4 pts
Q2 6:46 Delay of Game on Idaho State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USU +0.3 pts
Q2 5:08 Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IDST +0.5 pts
Q2 3:10 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IDST +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IDST +0.5 pts
Q2 1:00 Pass Interference on Idaho State, 6 yards +2% USU +0.9 pts
Q2 0:43 Pass Interference on Idaho State, 5 yards +1% USU +0.5 pts
Q3 10:31 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IDST +0.9 pts
Q3 10:15 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% IDST +1.0 pts
Q3 6:34 Pass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yards +5% USU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:34 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IDST +1.2 pts
Q3 6:34 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IDST +1.2 pts
Q4 13:43 False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IDST +0.8 pts
Q4 7:57 Personal Foul on Utah State, 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% IDST +2.2 pts
Q4 6:17 Pass Interference on Utah State, 15 yards +2% IDST +0.9 pts

When it happened

Utah State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Utah State was ahead in it, below while Idaho State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:01 Utah State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% USU USU: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 10:15 False Start on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% IDST IDST: Punt
3 Q3 6:34 Utah State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedPass Interference on Idaho State, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Utah State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% USU USU: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 6:22 Utah State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +12% IDST USU: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:39 Utah State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% USU USU: Turnover
6 Q3 2:10 Idaho State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% IDST IDST: Field goal
7 Q4 14:13 Idaho State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% USU IDST: Punt
8 Q4 7:57 Personal Foul on Utah State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% IDST IDST: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Idaho State 71% · Utah State 29%

Final margin
Idaho State by 12
Luck in points
7.7 for Idaho State
Luck-adjusted margin
Idaho State by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Idaho State 16% · Utah State 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Idaho State · Utah State

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