Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Portland State at San Diego State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Portland State 53–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Portland State Vikings | 20 |
|---|---|
 San Diego State Aztecs | 53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 San Diego State about even · −20 Portland State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Portland State wins 2, San Diego State wins 8.
- 1 PRST 31 SDSU 17
- 2 PRST 20 SDSU 17
- 3 PRST 17 SDSU 19
- 4 PRST 28 SDSU 34
- 5 PRST 13 SDSU 23
- 6 PRST 14 SDSU 27
- 7 PRST 14 SDSU 31
- 8 PRST 20 SDSU 41
- 9 PRST 17 SDSU 42
- 10 PRST 9 SDSU 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Portland State wins 20% of them, San Diego State 80%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 33.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Portland State by 17+ | 3.5% |
| Portland State by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Portland State by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| San Diego State by 17+ | 35.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hossmann Lees, 22 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Hossmann Lees, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- C. DiLeva, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Portland State 12 for 98 yards, San Diego State 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:34 | False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 0:25 | Holding on Portland State, 10 yards | 0% SDSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:07 | False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:02 | Face Mask on San Diego State, 15 yards | 0% PRST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:06 | Holding on Portland State, 10 yards | 0% SDSU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% PRST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | Delay of Game on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:31 | Ineligible Downfield on Portland State, 5 yards | 0% SDSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:31 | Illegal Substitution on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PRST +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:23 | Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards | 0% PRST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:03 | Pass Interference on Portland State, 13 yards | 0% SDSU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 3:17 | Delay of Game on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:00 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% PRST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 2:37 | Offside on Portland State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +3.4 pts |
| Q3 1:34 | Pass Interference on Portland State, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | Running Into the Kicker on San Diego State, 5 yards | 0% PRST +0.1 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | False Start on Portland State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 5:07 | Face Mask on Portland State, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
San Diego State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:53 | Portland State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% PRST | PRST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 6:50 | Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% SDSU | PRST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:17 | Portland State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% SDSU | PRST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 11:56 | Portland State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% PRST | PRST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 10:22 | Portland State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +0% SDSU | PRST: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 8:59 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:40 | San Diego State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 2:37 | Offside on Portland State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +1% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Portland State 0% · San Diego State 100%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 33
- Luck in points
- 9.3 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 23.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Portland State 20% · San Diego State 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Portland State · 
San Diego State
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Texas State at Texas TEX 59–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Fresno State at USC USC 39–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Idaho at Utah UTAH 66–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Utah Tech at BYU BYU 63–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Northern Arizona at Arizona ARIZ 35–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner