Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Texas State at Texas, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Texas beat Texas State 59–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Texas State Bobcats | 7 |
|---|---|
 Texas Longhorns | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Texas about even · −2 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texas State wins 0, Texas wins 10.
- 1 TXST 24 TEX 28
- 2 TXST 14 TEX 24
- 3 TXST 10 TEX 24
- 4 TXST 24 TEX 42
- 5 TXST 10 TEX 31
- 6 TXST 3 TEX 28
- 7 TXST 7 TEX 35
- 8 TXST 3 TEX 35
- 9 TXST 10 TEX 47
- 10 TXST 10 TEX 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texas State wins 2% of them, Texas 98%. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 52.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texas State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 1.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Texas by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Texas by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Texas by 17+ | 75.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Cunanan, 24 yds missed · 92% expected
- D. Cunanan, 35 yds missed · 79% expected
- G. Spetic, 48 yds made · 58% expected
Penalties: Texas State 3 for 30 yards, Texas 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:37 | Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yards | 0% TXST +2.8 pts |
| Q1 4:08 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% TEX +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:13 | Holding on Texas, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEX +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:46 | Roughing the Passer on Texas State, 15 yards | 0% TEX +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:39 | Encroachment on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:29 | False Start on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TXST +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Texas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | Texas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% TXST | TXST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:26 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% TEX | TXST: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:31 | Texas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +0% TXST | TEX: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 9:37 | Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% TXST | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 7:24 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +0% TEX | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 6:46 | Texas State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% TEX | TXST: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q1 5:49 | Texas was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% TXST | TEX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 4:56 | Texas converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% TEX | TEX: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texas State 0% · Texas 100%
- Final margin
- Texas by 52
- Luck in points
- 19.9 for Texas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas by 32.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Texas State 2% · Texas 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Texas State · 
Texas
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- North Alabama at Arkansas ARK 31–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- East Carolina at Alabama ALA 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Fresno State at USC USC 39–0 · replay 99% for the winner