Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Oregon State at Houston, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Oregon State 33–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Oregon State Beavers | 20 |
|---|---|
 Houston Cougars | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Houston about even · −11 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon State wins 1, Houston wins 9.
- 1 ORST 38 HOU 31
- 2 ORST 7 HOU 10
- 3 ORST 31 HOU 38
- 4 ORST 17 HOU 28
- 5 ORST 15 HOU 31
- 6 ORST 24 HOU 42
- 7 ORST 23 HOU 45
- 8 ORST 17 HOU 45
- 9 ORST 20 HOU 52
- 10 ORST 7 HOU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon State wins 11% of them, Houston 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon State by 17+ | 1.5% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Houston by 17+ | 57.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Dimas, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- C. Ojeda, 47 yds missed · 56% expected
- J. Dimas, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Oregon State 4 for 27 yards, Houston 9 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:19 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | 0% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:12 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:20 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:46 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 2 yards | 0% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:33 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% HOU +4.9 pts |
| Q3 6:25 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:19 | Illegal Substitution on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +1.9 pts |
| Q3 1:54 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 14:27 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | Offside on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.3 pts |
| Q4 8:33 | False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORST +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:51 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | 0% ORST +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Houston’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:03 | Houston converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +1% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:02 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +2% ORST | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 1:01 | Oregon State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +3% HOU | ORST: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 14:55 | Houston fumbled and Oregon State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% ORST | HOU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 8:21 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% HOU | ORST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:57 | C. Ojeda missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 1 of 4 from 45+ before | +1% HOU | ORST: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 8:33 | Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:05 | Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon State 6% · Houston 94%
- Final margin
- Houston by 13
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 10.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon State 11% · Houston 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Oregon State · 
Houston
More from Week 1 2026
- Idaho State at Utah State IDST 29–17 · replay 16% for the winner
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado State CSU 35–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Portland State at San Diego State SDSU 53–20 · replay 80% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- Texas State at Texas TEX 59–7 · replay 98% for the winner