Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Boston College at Cincinnati, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Cincinnati beat Boston College 34–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:17 left): Cincinnati converted 4th & 5, worth 13 points of win probability to Cincinnati.
Final
 Boston College Eagles | 15 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Cincinnati about even · −11 Boston College
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boston College wins 1, Cincinnati wins 9.
- 1 BC 21 CIN 14
- 2 BC 21 CIN 24
- 3 BC 17 CIN 24
- 4 BC 13 CIN 24
- 5 BC 23 CIN 38
- 6 BC 23 CIN 41
- 7 BC 6 CIN 28
- 8 BC 14 CIN 40
- 9 BC 14 CIN 45
- 10 BC 3 CIN 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boston College wins 11% of them, Cincinnati 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boston College by 17+ | 0.7% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 16.4% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 17.5% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 55.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 54 yds made · 47% expected
- L. Lombardo, 35 yds missed · 84% expected
- S. Rusnak, 44 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Boston College 7 for 37 yards, Cincinnati 6 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:36 | Delay of Game on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.2 pts |
| Q1 5:00 | Holding on Cincinnati, 6 yards | +1% BC +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:08 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:17 | Offside on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 14:17 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:46 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 9 yards | +1% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.2 pts |
| Q3 10:48 | Holding on Boston College, 7 yards | 0% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:48 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 4:37 | Roughing the Passer on Cincinnati, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BC +4.5 pts |
| Q3 4:37 | Illegal Substitution on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.3 pts |
| Q3 2:01 | Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 14 yards | +1% BC +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +2% CIN | BC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:46 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +2% BC | CIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 8:27 | Boston College converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedS. Rusnak made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +5% CIN | BC: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 3:08 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedBoston College converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedFalse Start on Boston College, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% BC | BC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% CIN | BC: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:17 | Cincinnati converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedCincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedCincinnati converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedCincinnati converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedCincinnati fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Offside on Boston College, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Cincinnati, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +13% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 2:00 | Boston College converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedBoston College converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedPass Interference on Cincinnati, 9 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Boston College, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% BC | BC: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:12 | L. Lombardo missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +4% CIN | BC: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boston College 16% · Cincinnati 84%
- Final margin
- Cincinnati by 19
- Luck in points
- 12.1 for Cincinnati
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 6.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Boston College 11% · Cincinnati 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Boston College · 
Cincinnati
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oregon State at Houston HOU 33–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- SMU at Florida State SMU 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner