luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 7, 2026

SMU at Florida State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

SMU beat Florida State 27–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 10 of 10. Florida State had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Florida State.

An off day for Florida State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against SMU it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff SMU was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:45 left): Holding on SMU, 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 23 points of win probability to Florida State.

Final

SMU Mustangs 27
Florida State Seminoles 24

September 7, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium · Closing line: SMU −3

Luck index +3 SMU about even · −3 Florida State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. SMU wins 10, Florida State wins 0.

  1. 1 SMU 48 FSU 3
  2. 2 SMU 41 FSU 3
  3. 3 SMU 49 FSU 17
  4. 4 SMU 35 FSU 6
  5. 5 SMU 28 FSU 3
  6. 6 SMU 35 FSU 13
  7. 7 SMU 30 FSU 10
  8. 8 SMU 20 FSU 6
  9. 9 SMU 24 FSU 14
  10. 10 SMU 30 FSU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Florida State

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against SMU it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

39 points apart for Florida State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
SMU offenseEPA per play gained +0.42 +0.10 better by 0.32
SMU defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.03 better by 0.04
Florida State offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.09 worse by 0.10
Florida State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.42 +0.10 worse by 0.32

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

SMU wins 97% of them, Florida State 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
SMU by 17+74.4%
SMU by 9–1613.5%
SMU by 1–88.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Florida State by 1–82.1%
Florida State by 9–160.4%
Florida State by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to SMU: the final margin was SMU by 3, without the luck Florida State by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Reed, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
  • G. Panikowski, 46 yds made · 62% expected
  • N. Reed, 22 yds made · 92% expected
  • N. Reed, 20 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: SMU 6 for 48 yards, Florida State 3 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:38 Illegal Block on SMU, 10 yards +1% FSU +0.6 pts
Q1 2:20 Face Mask on SMU, 9 yards +2% FSU +1.1 pts
Q2 6:08 Illegal Substitution on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.2 pts
Q2 5:20 Illegal Block on Florida State, 10 yards +3% SMU +1.3 pts
Q3 4:48 Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% FSU +2.5 pts
Q3 2:00 Holding on SMU, 10 yards +4% FSU +1.0 pts
Q4 8:30 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SMU +1.0 pts
Q4 3:45 Holding on SMU, 9 yards, wiping out the play +23% FSU +3.0 pts
Q4 2:00 Face Mask on Florida State, 12 yards +8% SMU +1.5 pts

When it happened

Florida State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 53%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida State was ahead in it, below while SMU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 6:48 SMU fumbled and Florida State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% FSU SMU: Punt
2 Q3 2:30 Florida State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +8% FSU FSU: Touchdown
3 Q4 12:37 SMU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% SMU SMU: Turnover
4 Q4 8:17 Florida State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% FSU FSU: Punt
5 Q4 5:20 Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% SMU FSU: Punt
6 Q4 3:45 Holding on SMU, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +23% FSU FSU: Turnover
7 Q4 2:45 SMU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +21% SMU SMU: Field goal
8 Q4 2:00 Face Mask on Florida State, 12 yardsJudgment calls +8% SMU SMU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

SMU 44% · Florida State 56%

Final margin
SMU by 3
Luck in points
4.1 for SMU
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida State by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
SMU 97% · Florida State 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · SMU · Florida State

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