Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Clemson at LSU, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
LSU beat Clemson 51–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, LSU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff LSU was a 74% favorite.
Final
 Clemson Tigers | 10 |
|---|---|
 LSU Tigers | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 LSU about even · 0 Clemson
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Clemson wins 0, LSU wins 10.
- 1 CLEM 13 LSU 23
- 2 CLEM 7 LSU 27
- 3 CLEM 9 LSU 34
- 4 CLEM 3 LSU 31
- 5 CLEM 0 LSU 31
- 6 CLEM 10 LSU 44
- 7 CLEM 7 LSU 44
- 8 CLEM 0 LSU 41
- 9 CLEM 0 LSU 47
- 10 CLEM 0 LSU 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Clemson wins 0% of them, LSU 100%. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Clemson by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| LSU by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| LSU by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| LSU by 17+ | 95.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Hauser, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- S. Starzyk, 49 yds made · 56% expected
- S. Starzyk, 48 yds missed · 58% expected
Penalties: Clemson 5 for 41 yards, LSU 7 for 90 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:22 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | +1% CLEM +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:51 | Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yards | +3% LSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:42 | Face Mask on Clemson, 1 yard | +1% LSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:40 | False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 5:31 | Delay of Game on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:37 | Personal Foul on LSU, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +1.6 pts |
| Q2 2:31 | Personal Foul on LSU, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +1.1 pts |
| Q3 12:33 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | 0% CLEM +4.1 pts |
| Q3 5:05 | Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yards | 0% LSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:23 | Roughing the Passer on LSU, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +1.4 pts |
| Q3 1:40 | Holding on LSU, 10 yards | 0% CLEM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on LSU, 15 yards | 0% CLEM +1.6 pts |
When it happened
LSU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:32 | Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +1% LSU | CLEM: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 13:22 | Holding on LSU, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CLEM | CLEM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:21 | LSU was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% CLEM | LSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 8:36 | Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +3% LSU | CLEM: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:51 | Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:42 | Face Mask on Clemson, 1 yardJudgment calls | +1% LSU | LSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 2:07 | Return touchdown by LSUSpecial teams | +6% LSU | LSU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q2 12:15 | S. Starzyk missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +1% CLEM | LSU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Clemson 0% · LSU 100%
- Final margin
- LSU by 41
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for LSU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- LSU by 33.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Clemson 0% · LSU 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Clemson · 
LSU
More from Week 1 2026
- Colorado at Georgia Tech COLO 14–13 · replay 19% for the winner
- Louisville vs Ole Miss MISS 41–38 · replay 57% for the winner
- North Carolina vs TCU UNC 15–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Baylor vs Auburn AUB 17–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Boston College at Cincinnati CIN 34–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Akron at Wake Forest WAKE 38–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- Austin Peay at Vanderbilt VAN 28–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh PITT 59–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- UCLA at California UCLA 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- SMU at Florida State SMU 27–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner