luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Austin Peay at Vanderbilt, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Austin Peay 28–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 97% favorite.

Final

Austin Peay Governors 9
Vanderbilt Commodores 28

September 5, 2026 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −29.5

Luck index +5 Vanderbilt about even · −5 Austin Peay

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Austin Peay wins 0, Vanderbilt wins 10.

  1. 1 APSU 10 VAN 13
  2. 2 APSU 21 VAN 28
  3. 3 APSU 14 VAN 27
  4. 4 APSU 12 VAN 27
  5. 5 APSU 3 VAN 21
  6. 6 APSU 10 VAN 31
  7. 7 APSU 7 VAN 31
  8. 8 APSU 6 VAN 31
  9. 9 APSU 0 VAN 30
  10. 10 APSU 0 VAN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Austin Peay wins 5% of them, Vanderbilt 95%. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Austin Peay by 17+0.2%
Austin Peay by 9–160.9%
Austin Peay by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.3%
Vanderbilt by 1–813.7%
Vanderbilt by 9–1619.9%
Vanderbilt by 17+61.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to Austin Peay: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 19, without the luck Vanderbilt by 19.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Taylor, 32 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Taylor, 37 yds made · 83% expected
  • H. DiBoyan, 51 yds made · 52% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Austin Peay 3 for 25 yards, Vanderbilt 9 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:10 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% APSU +2.8 pts
Q1 7:17 Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yards +1% APSU +1.6 pts
Q1 6:50 Illegal Block on Vanderbilt, 8 yards 0% APSU +0.5 pts
Q2 1:25 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% APSU +0.9 pts
Q2 0:28 Face Mask on Vanderbilt, 15 yards +1% APSU +1.6 pts
Q3 4:36 False Start on Austin Peay, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.4 pts
Q3 3:41 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% APSU +0.1 pts
Q4 10:23 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% APSU +0.6 pts
Q4 9:54 Delay of Game on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% APSU +0.9 pts
Q4 3:04 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% APSU +0.2 pts
Q4 2:54 Illegal Block on Austin Peay, 10 yards 0% VAN +0.6 pts
Q4 2:47 Holding on Austin Peay, 10 yards 0% VAN +0.6 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Austin Peay was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:17 Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% APSU APSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:57 Austin Peay’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedAustin Peay missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +1% VAN APSU: Punt
3 Q2 9:43 Vanderbilt fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% VAN VAN: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:06 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% VAN VAN: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:28 Face Mask on Vanderbilt, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% APSU APSU: End of half
6 Q3 12:07 Austin Peay converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +1% APSU APSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:47 Austin Peay was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +1% VAN APSU: Punt
8 Q3 9:03 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +1% VAN VAN: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Austin Peay 0% · Vanderbilt 100%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 19
Luck in points
0.2 for Austin Peay
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 19.2
Replay with same day's form
Austin Peay 5% · Vanderbilt 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Austin Peay · Vanderbilt

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