luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Furman at Tennessee, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Tennessee beat Furman 56–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 100% favorite.

Final

Furman Paladins 9
Tennessee Volunteers 56

September 5, 2026 · Neyland Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −49.5

Luck index 0 Tennessee about even · 0 Furman

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Furman wins 0, Tennessee wins 10.

  1. 1 FUR 31 TENN 43
  2. 2 FUR 10 TENN 31
  3. 3 FUR 14 TENN 40
  4. 4 FUR 21 TENN 52
  5. 5 FUR 0 TENN 35
  6. 6 FUR 7 TENN 45
  7. 7 FUR 13 TENN 55
  8. 8 FUR 7 TENN 54
  9. 9 FUR 14 TENN 66
  10. 10 FUR 13 TENN 73

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Furman wins 0% of them, Tennessee 100%. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 47.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Furman by 17+0.0%
Furman by 9–160.0%
Furman by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.1%
Tennessee by 1–81.4%
Tennessee by 9–163.0%
Tennessee by 17+95.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to Furman: the final margin was Tennessee by 47, without the luck Tennessee by 50. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Furman 5 for 45 yards, Tennessee 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:53 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FUR +1.4 pts
Q1 3:07 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards 0% FUR +0.4 pts
Q1 0:24 Holding on Furman, 10 yards 0% TENN +0.6 pts
Q1 0:24 False Start on Furman, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.6 pts
Q2 10:22 Personal Foul on Tennessee, 15 yards 0% FUR +1.6 pts
Q2 1:52 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards 0% FUR +0.6 pts
Q2 0:35 Holding on Furman, 8 yards 0% TENN +1.1 pts
Q3 1:50 Chop Block on Furman, 12 yards 0% TENN +1.3 pts
Q4 14:47 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FUR +0.6 pts
Q4 13:13 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards 0% FUR +0.6 pts
Q4 11:24 Holding on Furman, 10 yards 0% TENN +0.6 pts
Q4 6:05 Delay of Game on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FUR +0.6 pts

When it happened

Tennessee’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Furman was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:53 Furman was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedFalse Start on Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% TENN FUR: Punt
2 Q1 7:35 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +0% FUR TENN: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:19 Furman converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% FUR FUR: Punt
4 Q1 3:07 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% FUR FUR: Punt
5 Q1 1:05 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +0% FUR TENN: Punt
6 Q2 0:35 Holding on Furman, 8 yardsJudgment calls +0% TENN TENN: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:50 Chop Block on Furman, 12 yardsJudgment calls +0% TENN TENN: Turnover
8 Q4 13:13 Furman converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFurman’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedHolding on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% TENN FUR: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Furman 0% · Tennessee 100%

Final margin
Tennessee by 47
Luck in points
3.1 for Furman
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 50.1
Replay with same day's form
Furman 0% · Tennessee 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Furman · Tennessee

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