luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Missouri State at Texas A&M, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Texas A&M beat Missouri State 50–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas A&M wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Texas A&M was a 99% favorite.

Final

Missouri State Bears 0
Texas A&M Aggies 50

September 5, 2026 · Kyle Field · Closing line: Texas A&M −38.5

Luck index 0 Texas A&M about even · 0 Missouri State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Missouri State wins 0, Texas A&M wins 10.

  1. 1 MOST 0 TA&M 13
  2. 2 MOST 0 TA&M 17
  3. 3 MOST 0 TA&M 20
  4. 4 MOST 0 TA&M 24
  5. 5 MOST 0 TA&M 26
  6. 6 MOST 0 TA&M 28
  7. 7 MOST 0 TA&M 31
  8. 8 MOST 3 TA&M 37
  9. 9 MOST 3 TA&M 42
  10. 10 MOST 3 TA&M 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Missouri State wins 0% of them, Texas A&M 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas A&M by 50.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Missouri State by 17+0.0%
Missouri State by 9–160.1%
Missouri State by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Texas A&M by 1–82.1%
Texas A&M by 9–166.1%
Texas A&M by 17+91.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.9 points to Texas A&M: the final margin was Texas A&M by 50, without the luck Texas A&M by 39.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Olano, 28 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Murray, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Missouri State 8 for 41 yards, Texas A&M 8 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:29 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MOST +0.5 pts
Q1 9:25 Roughing the Passer on Texas A&M, 15 yards 0% MOST +3.5 pts
Q1 7:20 Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MOST +4.3 pts
Q1 5:19 Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TA&M +0.4 pts
Q1 5:11 Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TA&M +0.4 pts
Q1 0:36 Delay of Game on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MOST +0.1 pts
Q1 0:35 Illegal Kick on Missouri State, 0 yards 0% TA&M 0.0 pts
Q2 11:24 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards 0% MOST +1.5 pts
Q2 11:08 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yards 0% MOST +1.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TA&M +0.3 pts
Q3 8:50 Personal Foul on Texas A&M, 15 yards 0% MOST +0.9 pts
Q3 3:13 False Start on Texas A&M, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MOST +0.7 pts
Q3 2:16 Pass Interference on Missouri State, 1 yard 0% TA&M +0.3 pts
Q4 14:26 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards 0% TA&M +0.4 pts
Q4 11:50 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards 0% TA&M +0.6 pts
Q4 2:29 Illegal Formation on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TA&M +0.3 pts

When it happened

Texas A&M’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Texas A&M was ahead in it, below while Missouri State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:25 Roughing the Passer on Texas A&M, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% MOST MOST: Punt
2 Q1 7:20 Pass Interference on Texas A&M, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% MOST MOST: Punt
3 Q1 5:19 Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedDelay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% TA&M MOST: Punt
4 Q2 11:08 Holding on Texas A&M, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% MOST MOST: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 9:38 Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedMissouri State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedTexas A&M fumbled and Missouri State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% MOST MOST: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:57 Missouri State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +0% TA&M MOST: Turnover
7 Q2 2:40 Missouri State fumbled and Texas A&M recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% TA&M MOST: End of half
8 Q4 2:29 Illegal Formation on Missouri State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% TA&M TA&M: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Missouri State 0% · Texas A&M 100%

Final margin
Texas A&M by 50
Luck in points
10.9 for Texas A&M
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas A&M by 39.1
Replay with same day's form
Missouri State 0% · Texas A&M 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Missouri State · Texas A&M

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