luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Mercyhurst at New Mexico State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

New Mexico State beat Mercyhurst 51–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, New Mexico State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff New Mexico State was a 97% favorite.

Final

Mercyhurst Lakers 14
New Mexico State Aggies 51

September 5, 2026 · Aggie Memorial Stadium · Closing line: New Mexico State −29.5

Luck index +4 New Mexico State about even · −4 Mercyhurst

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mercyhurst wins 0, New Mexico State wins 10.

  1. 1 MERC 17 NMSU 21
  2. 2 MERC 7 NMSU 17
  3. 3 MERC 17 NMSU 31
  4. 4 MERC 24 NMSU 41
  5. 5 MERC 3 NMSU 24
  6. 6 MERC 7 NMSU 31
  7. 7 MERC 10 NMSU 38
  8. 8 MERC 0 NMSU 31
  9. 9 MERC 9 NMSU 44
  10. 10 MERC 0 NMSU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mercyhurst wins 4% of them, New Mexico State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico State by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mercyhurst by 17+0.2%
Mercyhurst by 9–160.8%
Mercyhurst by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.8%
New Mexico State by 1–87.8%
New Mexico State by 9–1613.7%
New Mexico State by 17+74.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to Mercyhurst: the final margin was New Mexico State by 37, without the luck New Mexico State by 41.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • I. Uvaydov, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
  • I. Uvaydov, 39 yds made · 74% expected
  • R. Marcantonio, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
  • I. Uvaydov, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mercyhurst 5 for 49 yards, New Mexico State 8 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Delay of Game on Mercyhurst, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NMSU +1.8 pts
Q1 8:28 Face Mask on New Mexico State, 2 yards 0% MERC +0.8 pts
Q1 7:52 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MERC +0.9 pts
Q1 5:59 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Mercyhurst, 14 yards +1% NMSU +1.5 pts
Q1 1:51 Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards 0% MERC +1.4 pts
Q1 1:19 Horse Collar Tackle on New Mexico State, 15 yards 0% MERC +0.9 pts
Q2 12:58 Offside on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MERC +0.8 pts
Q3 9:39 Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards 0% MERC +0.6 pts
Q3 7:36 Holding on Mercyhurst, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NMSU +2.1 pts
Q3 4:50 Offside on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MERC +0.1 pts
Q3 3:59 Roughing the Passer on Mercyhurst, 15 yards 0% NMSU +1.2 pts
Q3 1:56 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MERC +1.0 pts
Q4 13:19 False Start on Mercyhurst, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.7 pts

When it happened

New Mexico State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while New Mexico State was ahead in it, below while Mercyhurst was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Delay of Game on Mercyhurst, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by New Mexico StateSpecial teams +2% NMSU NMSU: Missed field goal
2 Q1 7:52 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% MERC MERC: Punt
3 Q1 6:37 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 84% expected +1% MERC NMSU: Missed field goal
4 Q2 12:07 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +1% MERC NMSU: Punt
5 Q2 9:20 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +1% NMSU NMSU: Field goal
6 Q2 8:04 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +1% MERC NMSU: Field goal
7 Q2 5:48 Mercyhurst was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +1% NMSU MERC: Missed field goal
8 Q3 12:37 New Mexico State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +1% MERC NMSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mercyhurst 0% · New Mexico State 100%

Final margin
New Mexico State by 37
Luck in points
4.8 for Mercyhurst
Luck-adjusted margin
New Mexico State by 41.8
Replay with same day's form
Mercyhurst 4% · New Mexico State 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Mercyhurst · New Mexico State

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