luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026

West Georgia at Kennesaw State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Kennesaw State beat West Georgia 47–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kennesaw State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 93% favorite.

Final

West Georgia Wolves 0
Kennesaw State Owls 47

September 3, 2026 · Fifth Third Stadium · Closing line: Kennesaw State −22.5

Luck index 0 Kennesaw State about even · 0 West Georgia

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. West Georgia wins 0, Kennesaw State wins 10.

  1. 1 WGA 13 KENN 45
  2. 2 WGA 3 KENN 45
  3. 3 WGA 2 KENN 48
  4. 4 WGA 3 KENN 53
  5. 5 WGA 2 KENN 56
  6. 6 WGA 7 KENN 64
  7. 7 WGA 0 KENN 61
  8. 8 WGA 3 KENN 66
  9. 9 WGA 7 KENN 76
  10. 10 WGA 7 KENN 83

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

West Georgia wins 0% of them, Kennesaw State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 47.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
West Georgia by 17+0.0%
West Georgia by 9–160.0%
West Georgia by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Kennesaw State by 1–80.5%
Kennesaw State by 9–161.9%
Kennesaw State by 17+97.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to Kennesaw State: the final margin was Kennesaw State by 47, without the luck Kennesaw State by 40.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: West Georgia 7 for 53 yards, Kennesaw State 9 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% WGA +1.3 pts
Q1 12:25 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.4 pts
Q1 9:32 Delay of Game on West Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.1 pts
Q1 4:31 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards +1% KENN +1.7 pts
Q1 2:38 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yards 0% KENN +0.5 pts
Q1 2:00 Offside on West Georgia, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.4 pts
Q2 11:07 Personal Foul on West Georgia, 7 yards 0% KENN +0.8 pts
Q2 6:29 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.7 pts
Q3 6:48 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +1.1 pts
Q3 6:48 Delay of Game on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.1 pts
Q3 6:48 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.3 pts
Q3 0:00 Pass Interference on West Georgia, 15 yards 0% KENN +0.8 pts
Q4 11:06 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards 0% WGA +0.6 pts
Q4 3:46 Illegal Formation on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WGA +0.1 pts
Q4 3:36 Holding on West Georgia, 2 yards 0% KENN +0.1 pts
Q4 2:00 Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 15 yards 0% WGA +1.1 pts

When it happened

Kennesaw State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Kennesaw State was ahead in it, below while West Georgia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expectedHolding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% WGA KENN: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:16 West Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedKennesaw State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +1% WGA WGA: Punt
3 Q1 12:25 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedKennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedFalse Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% WGA KENN: End of half
4 Q1 9:32 West Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedKennesaw State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedDelay of Game on West Georgia, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% WGA WGA: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 7:13 Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedKennesaw State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +1% KENN KENN: Turnover
6 Q1 2:38 Holding on West Georgia, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% KENN KENN: Touchdown
7 Q1 2:07 Kennesaw State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% WGA KENN: Touchdown
8 Q2 11:07 West Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedPersonal Foul on West Georgia, 7 yardsJudgment calls +0% KENN WGA: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

West Georgia 0% · Kennesaw State 100%

Final margin
Kennesaw State by 47
Luck in points
6.6 for Kennesaw State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kennesaw State by 40.4
Replay with same day's form
West Georgia 0% · Kennesaw State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · West Georgia · Kennesaw State

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