Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Liberty at James Madison, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Liberty 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:26 left): Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to James Madison.
Final
 Liberty Flames | 13 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 James Madison about even · −11 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 1, James Madison wins 9.
- 1 LIB 19 JMU 13
- 2 LIB 21 JMU 24
- 3 LIB 10 JMU 16
- 4 LIB 7 JMU 16
- 5 LIB 10 JMU 22
- 6 LIB 10 JMU 24
- 7 LIB 10 JMU 29
- 8 LIB 13 JMU 35
- 9 LIB 10 JMU 38
- 10 LIB 0 JMU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 11% of them, James Madison 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 1.2% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 6.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 47.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Reeves, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- M. Suarez, 46 yds made · 61% expected
- C. Reeves, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- M. Suarez, 32 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Liberty 12 for 82 yards, James Madison 7 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JMU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 8:39 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 14 yards | +3% JMU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:39 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 15 yards | +3% JMU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 8:39 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 12 yards | +2% LIB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +2% LIB +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on James Madison, 15 yards | +1% LIB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JMU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:52 | Pass Interference on Liberty, 12 yards | +1% JMU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:52 | Personal Foul on James Madison, 15 yards | +3% LIB +2.1 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Illegal Block on Liberty, 4 yards | 0% JMU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards | +2% LIB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% JMU +5.3 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | False Start on Liberty, 2 yards · pre-snap | +2% JMU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 5:17 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JMU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Intentional Grounding on Liberty, 0 yards | 0% JMU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JMU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:39 | James Madison converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedPass Interference on Liberty, 14 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on James Madison, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:35 | Liberty fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expectedLiberty converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedLiberty converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedLiberty was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedPass Interference on James Madison, 12 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Liberty, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% LIB | LIB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 4:50 | James Madison converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +3% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:26 | Illegal Block on Liberty, 4 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Liberty, 2 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% JMU | JMU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 5:17 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on Liberty, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% JMU | LIB: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:01 | Liberty converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% LIB | LIB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 7:25 | Liberty converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedLiberty was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedLiberty fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% LIB | LIB: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 32% · James Madison 68%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for James Madison
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 3.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 11% · James Madison 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Liberty · 
James Madison
More from Week 1 2026
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Troy TROY 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Florida State FSU 34–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Murray State at Middle Tennessee MTSU 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at New Mexico State NMSU 51–14 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at North Dakota State NDSU 33–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Norfolk State at Old Dominion ODU 31–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State JXST 49–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lamar at Louisiana UL 38–7 · replay 100% for the winner