Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress
James Madison Dukes: luck and expected wins
James Madison is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 16th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.
2026, game by game
How often James Madison wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Liberty | W 20–13 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Wagner | W 87–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ San Diego State | W 26–13 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 4 | @ Old Dominion | W 46–20 | 93% | +7 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | James Madison win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Marshall |  James Madison by 25.6 | 95% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Georgia Southern | James Madison by 15.6 | 83% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Georgia State | James Madison by 19.3 | 88% |
| Week 8 · Oct 22 | at App State | James Madison by 13.3 | 79% |
| Week 9 · Oct 29 | vs Troy | James Madison by 21.9 | 91% |
| Week 10 · Nov 5 | at Southern Miss | James Madison by 19.4 | 88% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at UConn | James Madison by 9.6 | 71% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Coastal Carolina | James Madison by 25.3 | 93% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in James Madison’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.14 | +2.4 |
| Pre-snap flags | +0.14 | +15.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | +2.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.10 | −0.2 |
Luckiest wins
Wins James Madison takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 3 | @ San Diego State | W 26–13 | 40% | +60 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Georgia State | W 14–7 | 49% | +51 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Marshall | W 35–23 | 73% | +27 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Louisiana | W 24–14 | 79% | +21 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Liberty | W 20–13 | 89% | +11 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses James Madison would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Louisville | L 14–28 | 23% | −23 |
| 2025 CFP first round | @ Oregon | L 34–51 | 1% | −1 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12–1 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 2–0 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Weber State | W 45–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Louisville | L 14–28 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 4 | @ Liberty | W 31–13 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 5 | vs Georgia Southern | W 35–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 6 | @ Georgia State | W 14–7 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 7 | vs Louisiana | W 24–14 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 8 | vs Old Dominion | W 63–27 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 10 | @ Texas State | W 52–20 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 11 | @ Marshall | W 35–23 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 12 | vs App State | W 58–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 13 | vs Washington State | W 24–20 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 14 | @ Coastal Carolina | W 59–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 15 | vs Troy | W 31–14 | 98% | +2 |
| CFP first round | @ Oregon | L 34–51 | 1% | −1 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Sun Belt teams by luck
- Sun Belt:
App State, 
Arkansas State, 
Coastal Carolina, 
Georgia Southern, 
Georgia State, 
Louisiana, 
Louisiana Tech, 
Marshall, 
Old Dominion, 
South Alabama, 
Southern Miss, 
Troy, 
UL Monroe
How many wins does James Madison have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.2 wins.
Was James Madison lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.8 wins of luck, the 16th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was James Madison’s luckiest season?
2025: 12–1 from play worth 11.0 wins, +1.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 4–0 from play worth 3.2 (+0.8).