Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Arkansas State Red Wolves: luck and expected wins

Arkansas State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 46th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Arkansas State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Memphis	L 24–42	12%	−12
Week 2	vs West Georgia	W 52–7	99%	+1
Week 3	@ TCU	L 7–31	4%	−4
Week 4	vs Kennesaw State	W 17–14	56%	+44

Wk 1 −12 @ MEM

Wk 2 +1 vs WGA

Wk 3 −4 @ TCU

Wk 4 +44 vs KENN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Arkansas State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Louisiana	Louisiana by 8.9	29%
Week 6 · Oct 8	vs South Alabama	Arkansas State by 1.3	53%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Southern Miss	Southern Miss by 0.1	50%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Georgia State	Georgia State by 0.2	50%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs UL Monroe	Arkansas State by 18.6	87%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina by 0.5	49%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech by 5.9	36%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Troy	Arkansas State by 2.4	56%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Arkansas State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.03	−0.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.12	−7.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Arkansas State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ App State	W 30–29	32%	+68
2025 Week 6	vs Texas State	W 31–30	50%	+50
2026 Week 4	vs Kennesaw State	W 17–14	56%	+44
2025 Week 8	@ South Alabama	W 15–14	66%	+34
2025 Xbox Bowl	vs Missouri State	W 34–28	70%	+30

Unluckiest losses

Losses Arkansas State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	vs Louisiana	L 30–34	84%	−84
2025 Week 11	vs Southern Miss	L 21–27	62%	−62
2025 Week 3	vs Iowa State	L 16–24	18%	−18
2025 Week 4	@ Kennesaw State	L 21–28	12%	−12
2026 Week 1	@ Memphis	L 24–42	12%	−12

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	5.9	+0.1	3–4	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Southeast Missouri State	W 42–24	98%	+2
Week 2	vs Arkansas	L 14–56	0%	0
Week 3	vs Iowa State	L 16–24	18%	−18
Week 4	@ Kennesaw State	L 21–28	12%	−12
Week 5	@ UL Monroe	L 16–28	3%	−3
Week 6	vs Texas State	W 31–30	50%	+50
Week 8	@ South Alabama	W 15–14	66%	+34
Week 9	vs Georgia Southern	W 34–24	86%	+14
Week 10	@ Troy	W 23–10	81%	+19
Week 11	vs Southern Miss	L 21–27	62%	−62
Week 13	vs Louisiana	L 30–34	84%	−84
Week 14	@ App State	W 30–29	32%	+68
Xbox Bowl	vs Missouri State	W 34–28	70%	+30