Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Arkansas State at Troy, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Arkansas State beat Troy 23–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas State wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Troy: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers
Before kickoff Troy was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 23 |
|---|---|
 Troy Trojans | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Arkansas State about even · −19 Troy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 8, Troy wins 2.
- 1 ARST 32 TROY 3
- 2 ARST 30 TROY 6
- 3 ARST 20 TROY 0
- 4 ARST 19 TROY 3
- 5 ARST 13 TROY 0
- 6 ARST 13 TROY 3
- 7 ARST 13 TROY 6
- 8 ARST 3 TROY 0
- 9 ARST 17 TROY 20
- 10 ARST 0 TROY 8
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Troy
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Arkansas State it would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Troy: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.00 | +0.02 | worse by 0.02 |
| Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.23 | +0.09 | better by 0.31 |
| Troy offenseEPA per play gained | −0.23 | +0.07 | worse by 0.29 |
| Troy defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.00 | +0.10 | better by 0.10 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas State wins 81% of them, Troy 19%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 31.2% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 24.7% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Troy by 17+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Van Andel, 30 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Van Andel, 51 yds missed · 54% expected
- S. Renfroe, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Van Andel, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Van Andel, 53 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Arkansas State 7 for 60 yards, Troy 7 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:35 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TROY +1.1 pts |
| Q1 8:11 | Holding on Troy, 9 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:11 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:59 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.4 pts |
| Q2 11:48 | Illegal Formation on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.3 pts |
| Q3 14:41 | Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards | +3% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:11 | Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards | 0% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:41 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +1% TROY +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:43 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | 0% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:57 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | +4% ARST +2.7 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:10 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:01 | Pass Interference on Troy, 12 yards | 0% ARST +0.1 pts |
| Q4 8:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on Arkansas State, 15 yards | 0% TROY +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Troy’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | Troy fumbled and Arkansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% ARST | TROY: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:52 | Troy converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +6% TROY | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 13:03 | Troy was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +7% ARST | TROY: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 4:59 | C. Van Andel missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before | +3% TROY | ARST: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 3:57 | Holding on Troy, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ARST | ARST: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 11:33 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% ARST | ARST: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 9:34 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +4% ARST | ARST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 6:59 | Troy converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas State 96% · Troy 4%
- Final margin
- Arkansas State by 13
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas State by 13.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas State 81% · Troy 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Arkansas State · 
Troy
More from Week 10 2025
- Louisiana at South Alabama UL 31–22 · replay 66% for the winner
- Marshall at Coastal Carolina CCU 44–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Old Dominion at UL Monroe ODU 31–6 · replay 84% for the winner
- James Madison at Texas State JMU 52–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner