luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Old Dominion at UL Monroe, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Old Dominion beat UL Monroe 31–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Old Dominion was an 86% favorite.

Final

Old Dominion Monarchs 31
UL Monroe Warhawks 6

November 1, 2025 · Malone Stadium · Closing line: Old Dominion −16.5

Luck index +16 Old Dominion about even · −16 UL Monroe

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 8, UL Monroe wins 2.

  1. 1 ODU 50 ULM 10
  2. 2 ODU 41 ULM 10
  3. 3 ODU 41 ULM 17
  4. 4 ODU 24 ULM 3
  5. 5 ODU 27 ULM 10
  6. 6 ODU 42 ULM 28
  7. 7 ODU 31 ULM 21
  8. 8 ODU 21 ULM 17
  9. 9 ODU 13 ULM 17
  10. 10 ODU 10 ULM 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Old Dominion wins 84% of them, UL Monroe 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Old Dominion by 17+47.0%
Old Dominion by 9–1619.1%
Old Dominion by 1–816.7%
Level after regulation1.1%
UL Monroe by 1–89.6%
UL Monroe by 9–164.6%
UL Monroe by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to Old Dominion: the final margin was Old Dominion by 25, without the luck Old Dominion by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Callaghan, 31 yds missed · 83% expected
  • N. Eichner, 30 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Old Dominion 11 for 78 yards, UL Monroe 11 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:29 Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yards +1% ODU +1.6 pts
Q1 9:53 Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +1.4 pts
Q1 4:55 Illegal Block on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% ULM +0.6 pts
Q1 2:59 Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% ULM +2.7 pts
Q2 11:37 Unnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yards 0% ODU +0.9 pts
Q2 8:29 False Start on UL Monroe, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% ODU +1.2 pts
Q2 8:13 False Start on UL Monroe, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.1 pts
Q2 3:57 Holding on UL Monroe, 9 yards, wiping out the play 0% ODU +2.5 pts
Q2 2:46 Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.3 pts
Q2 0:45 False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +0.2 pts
Q3 14:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UL Monroe, 13 yards 0% ODU +0.8 pts
Q3 6:32 False Start on UL Monroe, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU 0.0 pts
Q3 5:51 Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 8 yards 0% ODU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:34 False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.6 pts
Q4 14:07 Unnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 4 yards 0% ODU +0.2 pts
Q4 13:31 Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +0.6 pts
Q4 10:39 Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards 0% ODU +0.6 pts
Q4 6:56 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% ULM +0.6 pts
Q4 3:08 Delay of Game on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ULM +0.2 pts
Q4 1:50 Running Into the Kicker on Old Dominion, 5 yards 0% ULM +0.3 pts
Q4 1:14 Running Into the Kicker on Old Dominion, 5 yards 0% ULM 0.0 pts
Q4 1:13 Running Into the Kicker on Old Dominion, 5 yards 0% ULM +0.6 pts

When it happened

UL Monroe’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UL Monroe was ahead in it, below while Old Dominion was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:41 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +2% ULM ODU: Missed field goal
2 Q1 10:33 UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +2% ODU ULM: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 10:29 Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% ODU ODU: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:40 UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedUL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +3% ODU ULM: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 2:59 Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% ULM ULM: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 14:47 UL Monroe converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +1% ULM ULM: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 12:18 UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +1% ODU ULM: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 11:37 UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on UL Monroe, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% ODU ULM: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Old Dominion 100% · UL Monroe 0%

Final margin
Old Dominion by 25
Luck in points
6.2 for Old Dominion
Luck-adjusted margin
Old Dominion by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Old Dominion 84% · UL Monroe 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Old Dominion · UL Monroe

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