Week 10 2025 · October 28, 2025
James Madison at Texas State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Texas State 52–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff James Madison was a 68% favorite.
Final
 James Madison Dukes | 52 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 James Madison about even · −2 Texas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. James Madison wins 10, Texas State wins 0.
- 1 JMU 70 TXST 14
- 2 JMU 61 TXST 14
- 3 JMU 70 TXST 28
- 4 JMU 59 TXST 21
- 5 JMU 59 TXST 27
- 6 JMU 52 TXST 24
- 7 JMU 56 TXST 31
- 8 JMU 52 TXST 31
- 9 JMU 56 TXST 41
- 10 JMU 41 TXST 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
James Madison wins 98% of them, Texas State 2%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| James Madison by 17+ | 85.8% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 5.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 35 yds made · 82% expected
- T. Robles, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- M. Suarez, 31 yds made · 84% expected
Penalties: James Madison 6 for 46 yards, Texas State 3 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:17 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TXST +1.3 pts |
| Q1 6:35 | Face Mask on James Madison, 15 yards | +3% TXST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:17 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JMU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on Texas State, 0 yards | 0% JMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Illegal Substitution on James Madison, 3 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% TXST +3.2 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Illegal Substitution on James Madison, 8 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% TXST +4.1 pts |
| Q3 11:13 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +2.6 pts |
| Q3 1:03 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | 0% TXST +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:33 | Ineligible Downfield on James Madison, 5 yards | 0% TXST +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:25 | Texas State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% TXST | TXST: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 13:40 | James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +2% TXST | JMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:07 | James Madison converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:17 | False Start on James Madison, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% TXST | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 6:35 | Face Mask on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TXST | TXST: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 14:51 | Texas State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +2% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 12:53 | James Madison converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% JMU | JMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:49 | Illegal Substitution on James Madison, 3 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flagsIllegal Substitution on James Madison, 8 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +7% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
James Madison 100% · Texas State 0%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 32
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for Texas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 37.0
- Replay with same day's form
- James Madison 98% · Texas State 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
James Madison · 
Texas State
More from Week 10 2025
- Louisiana at South Alabama UL 31–22 · replay 66% for the winner
- Marshall at Coastal Carolina CCU 44–27 · replay 80% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Troy ARST 23–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Old Dominion at UL Monroe ODU 31–6 · replay 84% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner