Week 10 2025 · October 30, 2025
Marshall at Coastal Carolina, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Coastal Carolina beat Marshall 44–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Coastal Carolina wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Marshall: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff Marshall was a 68% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Coastal Carolina about even · −20 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 2, Coastal Carolina wins 8.
- 1 MRSH 26 CCU 10
- 2 MRSH 27 CCU 21
- 3 MRSH 17 CCU 20
- 4 MRSH 31 CCU 38
- 5 MRSH 10 CCU 20
- 6 MRSH 23 CCU 37
- 7 MRSH 27 CCU 45
- 8 MRSH 26 CCU 48
- 9 MRSH 17 CCU 44
- 10 MRSH 14 CCU 53
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Marshall
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Coastal Carolina it would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for Marshall: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall offenseEPA per play gained | −0.07 | +0.08 | worse by 0.15 |
| Marshall defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.07 | better by 0.08 |
| Coastal Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.10 | worse by 0.11 |
| Coastal Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.07 | +0.08 | better by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 20% of them, Coastal Carolina 80%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Coastal Carolina by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 4.1% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 17.4% |
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 47.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 36 yds made · 81% expected
- L. Quinn, 55 yds made · 45% expected
- L. Quinn, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 42 yds made · 71% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 24 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Marshall 8 for 70 yards, Coastal Carolina 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:55 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +2% CCU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 5:27 | Ineligible Downfield on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% MRSH +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:05 | Face Mask on Marshall, 5 yards | +4% CCU +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:49 | Offside on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +1% CCU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:49 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +2% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:15 | Personal Foul on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +3% MRSH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:13 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +1% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:13 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Chop Block on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +3% MRSH +1.5 pts |
| Q4 5:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Marshall, 15 yards | 0% CCU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:08 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedReturn touchdown by MarshallSpecial teams | +8% MRSH | CCU: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 4:01 | Marshall converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedMarshall converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +4% MRSH | MRSH: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 12:46 | Marshall converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% MRSH | MRSH: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 11:16 | Marshall fumbled and Coastal Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CCU | MRSH: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 7:56 | K. Afrookhteh made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +7% CCU | CCU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:13 | Marshall fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Marshall, 10 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 0:11 | Marshall fumbled and Coastal Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CCU | MRSH: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:35 | Marshall was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% CCU | MRSH: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 1% · Coastal Carolina 99%
- Final margin
- Coastal Carolina by 17
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Coastal Carolina by 17.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 20% · Coastal Carolina 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Marshall · 
Coastal Carolina
More from Week 10 2025
- Louisiana at South Alabama UL 31–22 · replay 66% for the winner
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- Old Dominion at UL Monroe ODU 31–6 · replay 84% for the winner
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- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
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- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner