luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · October 28, 2025–November 1, 2025

Week 10 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

17 upsets in Week 10 2025. The biggest: Fresno State beat Boise State 30–7 as 13% underdogs, and deserved it. 7 of 52 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Duke beat Clemson 46–45 in a game it wins 22% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 10 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 10 of 17 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Fresno State 30–7 @ Boise State 13% 96% Deserved
West Virginia 45–35 @ Houston 19% 42% Coin flip
Kentucky 10–3 @ Auburn 23% 71% Deserved
SMU 26–20 vs Miami 29% 32% Lucky
Arizona State 24–19 @ Iowa State 31% 62% Deserved
Arkansas State 23–10 @ Troy 31% 81% Deserved
Coastal Carolina 44–27 vs Marshall 33% 80% Deserved
UTSA 48–26 vs Tulane 35% 81% Deserved
Mississippi State 38–35 @ Arkansas 36% 23% Lucky
NC State 48–36 vs Georgia Tech 39% 35% Lucky
Duke 46–45 @ Clemson 40% 22% Lucky
New Mexico 40–35 @ UNLV 41% 70% Deserved
Louisiana 31–22 @ South Alabama 41% 66% Deserved
Oregon State 10–7 vs Washington State 41% 27% Lucky
Oklahoma 33–27 @ Tennessee 42% 17% Lucky
Buffalo 28–3 @ Bowling Green 44% 99% Deserved
North Carolina 27–10 @ Syracuse 46% 94% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 10 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Oklahoma W 33–27 @ Tennessee 17% +83
2 Duke W 46–45 @ Clemson 22% +78
3 Mississippi State W 38–35 @ Arkansas 23% +77
4 Oregon State W 10–7 vs Washington State 27% +73
5 SMU W 26–20 vs Miami 32% +68
6 Army W 20–17 @ Air Force 34% +66
7 NC State W 48–36 vs Georgia Tech 35% +65
8 Minnesota W 23–20 vs Michigan State 41% +59
9 West Virginia W 45–35 @ Houston 42% +58
10 North Texas W 31–17 vs Navy 48% +52
11 Western Michigan W 24–21 vs Central Michigan 48% +52
12 Virginia W 31–21 @ California 54% +46
13 Missouri State W 28–21 vs Florida International 59% +41
14 Arizona State W 24–19 @ Iowa State 62% +38
15 Georgia W 24–20 vs Florida 66% +34
16 Louisiana W 31–22 @ South Alabama 66% +34
17 New Mexico W 40–35 @ UNLV 70% +30
18 Kentucky W 10–3 @ Auburn 71% +29
19 USC W 21–17 @ Nebraska 71% +29
20 Utah W 45–14 vs Cincinnati 73% +27
21 Texas W 34–31 vs Vanderbilt 74% +26
22 Jacksonville State W 24–21 @ Middle Tennessee 75% +25
23 Kennesaw State W 33–20 vs UTEP 76% +24
24 San José State W 45–38 vs Hawai'i 78% +22
25 Coastal Carolina W 44–27 vs Marshall 80% +20
26 UTSA W 48–26 vs Tulane 81% +19
27 Arkansas State W 23–10 @ Troy 81% +19
28 Pittsburgh W 35–20 @ Stanford 83% +17
29 Kansas W 38–21 vs Oklahoma State 84% +17
30 Old Dominion W 31–6 @ UL Monroe 84% +16
31 Ole Miss W 30–14 vs South Carolina 86% +14
32 Michigan W 21–16 vs Purdue 89% +11
33 Texas Tech W 43–20 @ Kansas State 92% +8
34 UConn W 38–19 vs UAB 93% +7
35 North Carolina W 27–10 @ Syracuse 94% +6
36 Louisville W 28–16 @ Virginia Tech 95% +5
37 Notre Dame W 25–10 @ Boston College 96% +4
38 Fresno State W 30–7 @ Boise State 96% +4
39 Indiana W 55–10 @ Maryland 97% +4
40 Baylor W 30–3 vs UCF 97% +3
41 James Madison W 52–20 @ Texas State 98% +2
42 Arizona W 52–17 @ Colorado 98% +2
43 Buffalo W 28–3 @ Bowling Green 99% +1
44 Florida State W 42–7 vs Wake Forest 99% +1
45 Liberty W 59–30 vs Delaware 99% +1
46 Louisiana Tech W 55–14 vs Sam Houston 100% 0
47 Western Kentucky W 35–16 vs New Mexico State 100% 0
48 San Diego State W 24–7 vs Wyoming 100% 0
49 Illinois W 35–13 vs Rutgers 100% 0
50 Memphis W 38–14 @ Rice 100% 0
51 East Carolina W 45–14 @ Temple 100% 0
52 Ohio State W 38–14 vs Penn State 100% 0
53 Penn State L 14–38 @ Ohio State 0% 0
54 Rice L 14–38 vs Memphis 0% 0
55 Temple L 14–45 vs East Carolina 0% 0
56 Rutgers L 13–35 @ Illinois 0% 0
57 Wyoming L 7–24 @ San Diego State 0% 0
58 New Mexico State L 16–35 @ Western Kentucky 0% 0
59 Sam Houston L 14–55 @ Louisiana Tech 0% 0
60 Delaware L 30–59 @ Liberty 1% −1
61 Wake Forest L 7–42 @ Florida State 1% −1
62 Bowling Green L 3–28 vs Buffalo 1% −1
63 Colorado L 17–52 vs Arizona 2% −2
64 Texas State L 20–52 vs James Madison 2% −2
65 UCF L 3–30 @ Baylor 3% −3
66 Maryland L 10–55 vs Indiana 4% −4
67 Boise State L 7–30 vs Fresno State 4% −4
68 Boston College L 10–25 vs Notre Dame 4% −4
69 Virginia Tech L 16–28 vs Louisville 5% −5
70 Syracuse L 10–27 vs North Carolina 6% −6
71 UAB L 19–38 @ UConn 7% −7
72 Kansas State L 20–43 vs Texas Tech 8% −8
73 Purdue L 16–21 @ Michigan 11% −11
74 South Carolina L 14–30 @ Ole Miss 14% −14
75 UL Monroe L 6–31 vs Old Dominion 16% −16
76 Oklahoma State L 21–38 @ Kansas 17% −17
77 Stanford L 20–35 vs Pittsburgh 17% −17
78 Troy L 10–23 vs Arkansas State 19% −19
79 Tulane L 26–48 @ UTSA 19% −19
80 Marshall L 27–44 @ Coastal Carolina 20% −20
81 Hawai'i L 38–45 @ San José State 22% −22
82 UTEP L 20–33 @ Kennesaw State 24% −24
83 Middle Tennessee L 21–24 vs Jacksonville State 25% −25
84 Vanderbilt L 31–34 @ Texas 26% −26
85 Cincinnati L 14–45 @ Utah 27% −27
86 Auburn L 3–10 vs Kentucky 29% −29
87 Nebraska L 17–21 vs USC 29% −29
88 UNLV L 35–40 vs New Mexico 30% −30
89 South Alabama L 22–31 vs Louisiana 34% −34
90 Florida L 20–24 vs Georgia 34% −34
91 Iowa State L 19–24 vs Arizona State 38% −38
92 Florida International L 21–28 @ Missouri State 41% −41
93 California L 21–31 vs Virginia 46% −46
94 Central Michigan L 21–24 @ Western Michigan 52% −52
95 Navy L 17–31 @ North Texas 52% −52
96 Houston L 35–45 vs West Virginia 58% −58
97 Michigan State L 20–23 @ Minnesota 59% −59
98 Georgia Tech L 36–48 @ NC State 65% −65
99 Air Force L 17–20 vs Army 66% −66
100 Miami L 20–26 @ SMU 68% −68
101 Washington State L 7–10 @ Oregon State 73% −73
102 Arkansas L 35–38 vs Mississippi State 77% −77
103 Clemson L 45–46 vs Duke 78% −78
104 Tennessee L 27–33 vs Oklahoma 83% −83