SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Oklahoma Sooners: luck and expected wins

Oklahoma is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.5 wins. Luck cost 0.5: the 30th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often Oklahoma wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs UTEP	W 51–0	99%	+1
Week 2	@ Michigan	L 10–17	52%	−52
Week 3	vs New Mexico	W 14–6	96%	+4
Week 4	@ Georgia	L 13–41	4%	−4

Wk 1 +1 vs UTEP

Wk 2 −52 @ MICH

Wk 3 +4 vs UNM

Wk 4 −4 @ UGA

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Oklahoma win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Texas	Texas by 10.9	25%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Kentucky	Oklahoma by 6.0	64%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Mississippi State	Mississippi State by 4.9	38%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs South Carolina	Oklahoma by 8.4	69%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Florida	Florida by 9.8	28%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Ole Miss	Oklahoma by 1.9	54%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Texas A&M	Oklahoma by 1.3	53%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Missouri	Missouri by 0.1	50%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Oklahoma’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.04	−0.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.06	+4.2
Fumble bounces	−0.13	−6.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Oklahoma takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 12	@ Alabama	W 23–21	12%	+88
2025 Week 10	@ Tennessee	W 33–27	17%	+83
2025 Week 13	vs Missouri	W 17–6	46%	+54
2025 Week 4	vs Auburn	W 24–17	60%	+40
2025 Week 8	@ South Carolina	W 26–7	83%	+18

Unluckiest losses

Losses Oklahoma would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 CFP first round	vs Alabama	L 24–34	82%	−82
2025 Week 9	vs Ole Miss	L 26–34	62%	−62
2026 Week 2	@ Michigan	L 10–17	52%	−52
2025 Week 7	vs Texas	L 6–23	34%	−34
2026 Week 4	@ Georgia	L 13–41	4%	−4

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	10–2	7.9	+2.1	4–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Illinois State	W 35–3	100%	0
Week 2	vs Michigan	W 24–13	84%	+16
Week 3	@ Temple	W 42–3	100%	0
Week 4	vs Auburn	W 24–17	60%	+40
Week 6	vs Kent State	W 44–0	99%	+1
Week 7	vs Texas	L 6–23	34%	−34
Week 8	@ South Carolina	W 26–7	83%	+18
Week 9	vs Ole Miss	L 26–34	62%	−62
Week 10	@ Tennessee	W 33–27	17%	+83
Week 12	@ Alabama	W 23–21	12%	+88
Week 13	vs Missouri	W 17–6	46%	+54
Week 14	vs LSU	W 17–13	96%	+4
CFP first round	vs Alabama	L 24–34	82%	−82