Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Oklahoma at Georgia, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Oklahoma 41–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 77% favorite.
Final
 Oklahoma Sooners | 13 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Bulldogs | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Georgia about even · −4 Oklahoma
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oklahoma wins 0, Georgia wins 10.
- 1 OU 21 UGA 24
- 2 OU 14 UGA 23
- 3 OU 7 UGA 21
- 4 OU 14 UGA 31
- 5 OU 13 UGA 34
- 6 OU 7 UGA 31
- 7 OU 10 UGA 37
- 8 OU 13 UGA 44
- 9 OU 3 UGA 38
- 10 OU 0 UGA 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oklahoma wins 4% of them, Georgia 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Oklahoma by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Oklahoma by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Georgia by 17+ | 76.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- P. Woodring, 45 yds made · 69% expected
- T. Sandell, 54 yds missed · 52% expected
- P. Woodring, 49 yds made · 62% expected
Penalties: Oklahoma 7 for 58 yards, Georgia 2 for 19 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:24 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 6 yards | +1% UGA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:43 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:07 | Delay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:22 | Block Below the Waist on Oklahoma, 15 yards | 0% UGA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:26 | Personal Foul on Oklahoma, 14 yards | 0% UGA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:45 | Holding on Oklahoma, 8 yards | 0% UGA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:44 | Illegal Use of Hands on Oklahoma, 5 yards | 0% UGA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 5:44 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia, 14 yards | 0% OU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:11 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Georgia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:30 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +1% OU | UGA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:50 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% UGA | OU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:44 | Georgia converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:40 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +2% OU | UGA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:57 | Georgia converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +3% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 3:24 | Pass Interference on Oklahoma, 6 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:43 | Oklahoma was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedDelay of Game on Oklahoma, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% UGA | OU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 8:58 | Oklahoma fumbled and Georgia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by GeorgiaSpecial teams | +4% UGA | OU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oklahoma 1% · Georgia 99%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 28
- Luck in points
- 11.6 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 16.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Oklahoma 4% · Georgia 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Oklahoma · 
Georgia
More from Week 4 2026
- Vanderbilt at Auburn AUB 21–15 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texas at Tennessee TEX 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Florida FLA 52–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- Missouri at Mississippi State MSST 31–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- South Carolina at Alabama ALA 49–18 · replay 96% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- South Alabama at Kentucky UK 45–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas A&M at LSU LSU 35–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner