luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Texas at Tennessee, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Texas beat Tennessee 20–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Texas was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:38 left): Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Texas.

Final

Texas Longhorns 20
Tennessee Volunteers 17

September 26, 2026 · Neyland Stadium · Closing line: Texas −5.5

Luck index +21 Texas about even · −21 Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texas wins 8, Tennessee wins 2.

  1. 1 TEX 31 TENN 0
  2. 2 TEX 24 TENN 0
  3. 3 TEX 20 TENN 0
  4. 4 TEX 23 TENN 7
  5. 5 TEX 20 TENN 7
  6. 6 TEX 17 TENN 7
  7. 7 TEX 6 TENN 0
  8. 8 TEX 10 TENN 7
  9. 9 TEX 3 TENN 6
  10. 10 TEX 10 TENN 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texas wins 79% of them, Tennessee 21%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texas by 17+32.1%
Texas by 9–1623.3%
Texas by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation4.2%
Tennessee by 1–812.3%
Tennessee by 9–166.0%
Tennessee by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to Texas: the final margin was Texas by 3, without the luck Texas by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Ranvier, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • G. Spetic, 22 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Spetic, 44 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texas 11 for 115 yards, Tennessee 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:32 Illegal Substitution on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEX +0.5 pts
Q1 10:49 Roughing the Passer on Texas, 15 yards +3% TENN +1.6 pts
Q1 10:12 Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yards +2% TENN +1.0 pts
Q1 6:15 Illegal Forward Pass on Texas, 5 yards +1% TENN +0.3 pts
Q1 5:49 Illegal Formation on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.3 pts
Q2 12:38 Illegal Formation on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEX +0.3 pts
Q2 10:28 Illegal Block on Texas, 10 yards +1% TENN +0.6 pts
Q2 5:11 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Texas, 15 yards +3% TENN +1.6 pts
Q2 4:19 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEX +0.8 pts
Q2 1:18 Illegal Forward Pass on Texas, 5 yards +1% TENN +0.3 pts
Q3 14:50 Pass Interference on Texas, 15 yards +4% TENN +1.9 pts
Q3 11:00 Roughing the Passer on Tennessee, 15 yards +5% TEX +1.6 pts
Q3 9:29 Delay of Game on Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TENN +0.9 pts
Q3 3:28 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 10 yards +6% TEX +1.8 pts
Q4 14:59 Holding on Texas, 10 yards +5% TENN +1.5 pts
Q4 0:38 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards +14% TEX +1.2 pts
Q4 0:26 Face Mask on Texas, 15 yards +6% TENN +0.8 pts
Q4 0:19 False Start on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TEX +0.5 pts

When it happened

Tennessee’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Texas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 8:20 Tennessee converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% TENN TENN: Punt
2 Q3 3:28 Pass Interference on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% TEX TEX: Punt
3 Q4 14:59 Holding on Texas, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% TENN TENN: Punt
4 Q4 12:07 Tennessee converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% TENN TENN: Punt
5 Q4 10:36 Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedTennessee fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% TENN TENN: Punt
6 Q4 9:13 Texas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% TEX TEX: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:38 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +14% TEX –
8 Q4 0:26 Face Mask on Texas, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% TENN TENN: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texas 63% · Tennessee 37%

Final margin
Texas by 3
Luck in points
0.8 for Texas
Luck-adjusted margin
Texas by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Texas 79% · Tennessee 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Texas · Tennessee

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