luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

South Carolina at Alabama, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Alabama beat South Carolina 49–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Alabama wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Alabama was a 79% favorite.

Final

South Carolina Gamecocks 18
Alabama Crimson Tide 49

September 26, 2026 · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Closing line: Alabama −12.5

Luck index +4 Alabama about even · −4 South Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Carolina wins 0, Alabama wins 10.

  1. 1 SC 28 ALA 34
  2. 2 SC 24 ALA 35
  3. 3 SC 16 ALA 31
  4. 4 SC 30 ALA 49
  5. 5 SC 27 ALA 49
  6. 6 SC 17 ALA 42
  7. 7 SC 17 ALA 48
  8. 8 SC 10 ALA 45
  9. 9 SC 0 ALA 42
  10. 10 SC 10 ALA 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Carolina wins 4% of them, Alabama 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Carolina by 17+0.4%
South Carolina by 9–160.6%
South Carolina by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.8%
Alabama by 1–88.2%
Alabama by 9–1610.7%
Alabama by 17+76.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to Alabama: the final margin was Alabama by 31, without the luck Alabama by 22.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Orsan, 45 yds missed · 64% expected
  • M. Orsan, 34 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Carolina 5 for 40 yards, Alabama 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:09 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ALA +0.9 pts
Q1 13:37 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards +1% ALA +0.6 pts
Q1 9:59 Pass Interference on Alabama, 6 yards 0% SC 0.0 pts
Q1 5:08 Delay of Game on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ALA +0.6 pts
Q1 1:17 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +1% SC +1.3 pts
Q1 1:17 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +2% SC +1.8 pts
Q2 8:34 Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yards +1% ALA +1.6 pts
Q2 4:51 Illegal Return on South Carolina, 5 yards 0% ALA +0.3 pts
Q4 4:46 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards 0% ALA +0.7 pts

When it happened

Alabama’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Alabama was ahead in it, below while South Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 False Start on South Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% ALA ALA: Punt
2 Q1 11:21 Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% SC ALA: Punt
3 Q1 5:08 South Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on South Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% ALA SC: Punt
4 Q1 2:37 Alabama converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +1% ALA ALA: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:17 Holding on Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Alabama, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% SC SC: Field goal
6 Q2 13:32 South Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +2% SC SC: Field goal
7 Q2 9:11 Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +2% ALA ALA: Touchdown
8 Q2 8:34 Roughing the Passer on South Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% ALA ALA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Carolina 0% · Alabama 100%

Final margin
Alabama by 31
Luck in points
8.2 for Alabama
Luck-adjusted margin
Alabama by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
South Carolina 4% · Alabama 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · South Carolina · Alabama

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