Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Missouri at Mississippi State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Mississippi State beat Missouri 31–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Mississippi State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Missouri: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Mississippi State it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers
Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:57 left): Mississippi State converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to Mississippi State.
Final
 Missouri Tigers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Mississippi State Bulldogs | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Mississippi State about even · −5 Missouri
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri wins 1, Mississippi State wins 9.
- 1 MIZ 27 MSST 21
- 2 MIZ 17 MSST 21
- 3 MIZ 31 MSST 38
- 4 MIZ 30 MSST 42
- 5 MIZ 7 MSST 23
- 6 MIZ 20 MSST 40
- 7 MIZ 14 MSST 37
- 8 MIZ 16 MSST 42
- 9 MIZ 16 MSST 47
- 10 MIZ 14 MSST 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Missouri
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Mississippi State it would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for Missouri: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.08 | better by 0.07 |
| Missouri defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.04 | worse by 0.16 |
| Mississippi State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.10 | better by 0.10 |
| Mississippi State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.08 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri wins 5% of them, Mississippi State 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Mississippi State by 1–8 | 10.3% |
| Mississippi State by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Mississippi State by 17+ | 66.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Craig, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
- B. Craig, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- K. Ferrie, 28 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Missouri 7 for 76 yards, Mississippi State 8 for 84 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:51 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +3% MSST +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:36 | Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +3% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:58 | Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 3 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q2 10:44 | Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +3% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:49 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +3% MSST +2.0 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +3% MSST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:19 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +4% MSST +1.8 pts |
| Q2 4:01 | Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 14 yards | +2% MIZ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Personal Foul on Missouri, 15 yards | +4% MSST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:30 | Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards | +4% MIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q3 3:54 | Face Mask on Mississippi State, 15 yards | +6% MIZ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +2% MSST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:52 | False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | Holding on Mississippi State, 7 yards | +5% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:34 | Holding on Missouri, 11 yards | +11% MSST +2.4 pts |
When it happened
Mississippi State’s chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:09 | Missouri converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 2:53 | Missouri converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +9% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 10:26 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% MSST | MSST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 7:39 | Mississippi State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +8% MSST | MSST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:54 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +10% MSST | MIZ: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 3:57 | Mississippi State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +12% MSST | MSST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:14 | Missouri was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +8% MSST | MIZ: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:34 | Holding on Missouri, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +11% MSST | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri 34% · Mississippi State 66%
- Final margin
- Mississippi State by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for Mississippi State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mississippi State by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri 5% · Mississippi State 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Missouri · 
Mississippi State
More from Week 4 2026
- Vanderbilt at Auburn AUB 21–15 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texas at Tennessee TEX 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Florida FLA 52–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- South Carolina at Alabama ALA 49–18 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Georgia UGA 41–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Tulsa at Arkansas ARK 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- South Alabama at Kentucky UK 45–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Texas A&M at LSU LSU 35–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner