Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Tulsa at Arkansas, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Arkansas beat Tulsa 34–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Arkansas wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Arkansas was a 68% favorite.
Final
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 6 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Arkansas about even · −1 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulsa wins 0, Arkansas wins 10.
- 1 TLSA 10 ARK 17
- 2 TLSA 6 ARK 19
- 3 TLSA 7 ARK 24
- 4 TLSA 7 ARK 27
- 5 TLSA 0 ARK 24
- 6 TLSA 0 ARK 26
- 7 TLSA 0 ARK 29
- 8 TLSA 0 ARK 32
- 9 TLSA 0 ARK 38
- 10 TLSA 0 ARK 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulsa wins 1% of them, Arkansas 99%. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulsa by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 2.7% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 89.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Gilbert, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- M. Gilbert, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- M. Gilbert, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- M. Gilbert, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Tulsa 9 for 71 yards, Arkansas 2 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:37 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ARK +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:15 | Holding on Tulsa, 8 yards | +1% ARK +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:06 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:54 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% ARK +4.1 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ARK +2.0 pts |
| Q2 2:16 | Intentional Grounding on Tulsa, 8 yards | +1% ARK +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:50 | Roughing the Passer on Arkansas, 15 yards | +1% TLSA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:10 | Kick Catch Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards | 0% ARK +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARK +2.8 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arkansas, 15 yards | 0% TLSA +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:27 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% TLSA | ARK: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:37 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:36 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:38 | Tulsa converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% TLSA | TLSA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:54 | Offside on Tulsa, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +6% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:53 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% ARK | ARK: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:43 | Tulsa converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 9:11 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +3% ARK | ARK: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulsa 17% · Arkansas 83%
- Final margin
- Arkansas by 28
- Luck in points
- 20.1 for Arkansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulsa 1% · Arkansas 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Tulsa · 
Arkansas
More from Week 4 2026
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Auburn AUB 21–15 · replay 67% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Texas at Tennessee TEX 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Florida FLA 52–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- Missouri at Mississippi State MSST 31–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- South Carolina at Alabama ALA 49–18 · replay 96% for the winner