SEC · 2026 season, in progress

Arkansas Razorbacks: luck and expected wins

Arkansas is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 58th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Arkansas wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs North Alabama	W 31–14	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Utah	L 10–43	1%	−1
Week 3	vs Georgia	L 17–45	3%	−3
Week 4	vs Tulsa	W 34–6	99%	+1

Wk 1 +2 vs UNA

Wk 2 −1 @ UTAH

Wk 3 −3 vs UGA

Wk 4 +1 vs TLSA

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Arkansas win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Texas A&M	Texas A&M by 16.7	15%
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Tennessee	Tennessee by 13.2	21%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt by 11.2	25%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Missouri	Missouri by 5.5	37%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Auburn	Auburn by 13.1	22%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs South Carolina	South Carolina by 3.3	42%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Texas	Texas by 26.0	6%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs LSU	LSU by 16.6	16%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Arkansas’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.10	+8.2
3rd & 4th downs	+0.04	+15.6
Kicks	−0.06	+1.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Arkansas takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	vs North Alabama	W 31–14	98%	+2
2026 Week 4	vs Tulsa	W 34–6	99%	+1
2025 Week 1	vs Alabama A&M	W 52–7	100%	0
2025 Week 2	vs Arkansas State	W 56–14	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Arkansas would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 10	vs Mississippi State	L 35–38	77%	−77
2025 Week 4	@ Memphis	L 31–32	70%	−70
2025 Week 9	vs Auburn	L 24–33	70%	−70
2025 Week 3	@ Ole Miss	L 35–41	63%	−63
2025 Week 12	@ LSU	L 22–23	41%	−41

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	2–10	5.9	−3.9	0–6	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Alabama A&M	W 52–7	100%	0
Week 2	vs Arkansas State	W 56–14	100%	0
Week 3	@ Ole Miss	L 35–41	63%	−63
Week 4	@ Memphis	L 31–32	70%	−70
Week 5	vs Notre Dame	L 13–56	0%	0
Week 7	@ Tennessee	L 31–34	28%	−28
Week 8	vs Texas A&M	L 42–45	22%	−22
Week 9	vs Auburn	L 24–33	70%	−70
Week 10	vs Mississippi State	L 35–38	77%	−77
Week 12	@ LSU	L 22–23	41%	−41
Week 13	@ Texas	L 37–52	6%	−6
Week 14	vs Missouri	L 17–31	16%	−16