Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Georgia at Arkansas, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Arkansas 45–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Georgia was a 94% favorite.
Final
 Georgia Bulldogs | 45 |
|---|---|
 Arkansas Razorbacks | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Georgia about even · −3 Arkansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia wins 10, Arkansas wins 0.
- 1 UGA 48 ARK 3
- 2 UGA 42 ARK 7
- 3 UGA 38 ARK 6
- 4 UGA 44 ARK 14
- 5 UGA 42 ARK 17
- 6 UGA 41 ARK 20
- 7 UGA 27 ARK 10
- 8 UGA 35 ARK 21
- 9 UGA 27 ARK 17
- 10 UGA 35 ARK 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia wins 97% of them, Arkansas 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 17+ | 72.9% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 14.6% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 8.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Arkansas by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Arkansas by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Arkansas by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Gilbert, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- P. Woodring, 38 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Georgia 4 for 41 yards, Arkansas 6 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:19 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 10 yards | +1% UGA +2.4 pts |
| Q2 8:51 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 5 yards | +1% UGA +2.2 pts |
| Q3 8:55 | Personal Foul on Georgia, 15 yards | 0% ARK +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:12 | Holding on Georgia, 10 yards | 0% ARK +2.9 pts |
| Q3 3:54 | Face Mask on Arkansas, 1 yard | 0% UGA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 1:51 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 10 yards | 0% UGA +1.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Ineligible Downfield on Georgia, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ARK +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:40 | Chop Block on Arkansas, 11 yards | 0% UGA +0.1 pts |
| Q4 13:22 | False Start on Arkansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UGA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:51 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 11 yards | 0% ARK +2.8 pts |
When it happened
Arkansas’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:28 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +1% ARK | ARK: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:43 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% UGA | ARK: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 8:46 | Georgia converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +0% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:27 | Arkansas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% UGA | ARK: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:06 | Georgia was stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% ARK | UGA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:19 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 8:51 | Pass Interference on Arkansas, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 7:12 | Arkansas converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% ARK | ARK: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 100% · Arkansas 0%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 28
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 23.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 97% · Arkansas 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Georgia · 
Arkansas
More from Week 3 2026
- LSU at Ole Miss MISS 32–24 · replay 69% for the winner
- Mississippi State at South Carolina MSST 41–34 · replay 73% for the winner
- Florida at Auburn FLA 44–39 · replay 73% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Kentucky at Texas A&M UK 31–21 · replay 79% for the winner
- Troy at Missouri MIZ 27–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- New Mexico at Oklahoma OU 14–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Tennessee TENN 42–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- UTSA at Texas TEX 30–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner