luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Florida State at Alabama, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Alabama beat Florida State 50–36, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Florida State had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Florida State.

Before kickoff Alabama was an 88% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:09 left): Offside on Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Florida State.

Final

Florida State Seminoles 36
Alabama Crimson Tide 50

September 19, 2026 · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Closing line: Alabama −18.5

Luck index +23 Alabama about even · −23 Florida State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida State wins 2, Alabama wins 8.

  1. 1 FSU 45 ALA 28
  2. 2 FSU 31 ALA 28
  3. 3 FSU 46 ALA 49
  4. 4 FSU 17 ALA 23
  5. 5 FSU 38 ALA 48
  6. 6 FSU 24 ALA 38
  7. 7 FSU 24 ALA 42
  8. 8 FSU 38 ALA 59
  9. 9 FSU 21 ALA 48
  10. 10 FSU 37 ALA 72

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida State wins 23% of them, Alabama 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida State by 17+4.4%
Florida State by 9–166.7%
Florida State by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Alabama by 1–821.9%
Alabama by 9–1617.4%
Alabama by 17+36.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to Florida State: the final margin was Alabama by 14, without the luck Alabama by 16.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Talty, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Talty, 43 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Talty, 45 yds made · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida State 6 for 49 yards, Alabama 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:23 False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FSU +1.0 pts
Q2 9:06 Penalty on Florida State, 24 yards, wiping out the play +1% ALA +1.6 pts
Q2 4:11 False Start on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FSU +0.5 pts
Q2 2:09 Offside on Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% FSU +3.6 pts
Q2 1:48 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ALA +0.5 pts
Q3 15:00 Ineligible Downfield on Florida State, 5 yards +1% ALA +1.0 pts
Q3 3:45 Illegal Shift on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.3 pts
Q3 1:44 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +1% FSU +1.5 pts
Q3 0:51 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.7 pts
Q4 13:36 Roughing the Kicker on Alabama, 15 yards +3% FSU +4.2 pts
Q4 7:35 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +2.1 pts
Q4 7:17 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +1% FSU +0.6 pts
Q4 2:15 Illegal Substitution on Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.3 pts

When it happened

Alabama’s chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Alabama was ahead in it, below while Florida State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:56 Alabama converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +3% ALA ALA: Field goal
2 Q2 14:43 Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% FSU ALA: Field goal
3 Q2 13:11 Florida State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% FSU FSU: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:48 Florida State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% FSU FSU: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:11 Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedAlabama converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedFalse Start on Alabama, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% ALA ALA: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:09 Offside on Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% FSU FSU: Turnover
7 Q3 11:54 Florida State converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% FSU FSU: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:36 Roughing the Kicker on Alabama, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% FSU FSU: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida State 1% · Alabama 99%

Final margin
Alabama by 14
Luck in points
2.7 for Florida State
Luck-adjusted margin
Alabama by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Florida State 23% · Alabama 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Florida State · Alabama

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