luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

North Carolina at Clemson, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Clemson beat North Carolina 28–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Clemson was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:54 left): North Carolina was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 19 points of win probability to Clemson.

Final

North Carolina Tar Heels 20
Clemson Tigers 28

September 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Closing line: Clemson −3

Luck index +30 Clemson lucky · −30 North Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Carolina wins 3, Clemson wins 7.

  1. 1 UNC 36 CLEM 17
  2. 2 UNC 28 CLEM 19
  3. 3 UNC 20 CLEM 17
  4. 4 UNC 30 CLEM 33
  5. 5 UNC 6 CLEM 13
  6. 6 UNC 17 CLEM 27
  7. 7 UNC 27 CLEM 40
  8. 8 UNC 17 CLEM 35
  9. 9 UNC 20 CLEM 42
  10. 10 UNC 3 CLEM 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Carolina wins 30% of them, Clemson 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Carolina by 17+6.6%
North Carolina by 9–168.3%
North Carolina by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation4.3%
Clemson by 1–820.1%
Clemson by 9–1618.1%
Clemson by 17+28.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to Clemson: the final margin was Clemson by 8, without the luck Clemson by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 49 yds made · 57% expected
  • A. Burrell, 47 yds missed · 58% expected
  • A. Burrell, 33 yds made · 81% expected
  • N. Hauser, 21 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Hauser, 22 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Burrell, 22 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Carolina 5 for 43 yards, Clemson 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 Illegal Block on Clemson, 5 yards +1% UNC +0.3 pts
Q1 8:50 Illegal Substitution on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q1 8:31 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play +9% CLEM +4.2 pts
Q1 1:34 Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLEM +2.6 pts
Q1 0:16 Intentional Grounding on North Carolina, 8 yards +1% CLEM +0.5 pts
Q3 10:43 Delay of Game on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% CLEM +4.4 pts
Q3 5:17 Illegal Formation on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% UNC +1.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards +4% UNC +1.1 pts
Q4 14:21 False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% UNC +0.8 pts

When it happened

Clemson’s chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Clemson was ahead in it, below while North Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:31 Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
2 Q1 2:05 North Carolina converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% UNC UNC: Missed field goal
3 Q3 10:43 Delay of Game on North Carolina, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
4 Q4 13:25 Clemson was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% UNC CLEM: Punt
5 Q4 9:13 North Carolina converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% UNC UNC: Field goal
6 Q4 5:01 Clemson’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% UNC CLEM: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:54 North Carolina was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +19% CLEM UNC: Turnover
8 Q4 1:00 Clemson converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% CLEM CLEM: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Carolina 40% · Clemson 60%

Final margin
Clemson by 8
Luck in points
5.9 for Clemson
Luck-adjusted margin
Clemson by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
North Carolina 30% · Clemson 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · North Carolina · Clemson

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