luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Mercer at Georgia Tech, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Georgia Tech beat Mercer 44–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Georgia Tech wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Georgia Tech was a 99% favorite.

Final

Mercer Bears 11
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 44

September 19, 2026 · Bobby Dodd Stadium · Closing line: Georgia Tech −38.5

Luck index +2 Georgia Tech about even · −2 Mercer

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mercer wins 0, Georgia Tech wins 10.

  1. 1 MER 34 GT 38
  2. 2 MER 35 GT 45
  3. 3 MER 20 GT 34
  4. 4 MER 14 GT 34
  5. 5 MER 7 GT 30
  6. 6 MER 14 GT 41
  7. 7 MER 7 GT 38
  8. 8 MER 17 GT 52
  9. 9 MER 0 GT 40
  10. 10 MER 7 GT 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mercer wins 2% of them, Georgia Tech 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Tech by 33.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mercer by 17+0.1%
Mercer by 9–160.4%
Mercer by 1–81.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Georgia Tech by 1–85.4%
Georgia Tech by 9–169.6%
Georgia Tech by 17+82.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Mercer: the final margin was Georgia Tech by 33, without the luck Georgia Tech by 39.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. Zeidan, 21 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Birr, 32 yds made · 85% expected
  • S. Zeidan, 40 yds made · 72% expected
  • S. Zeidan, 31 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Mercer 8 for 75 yards, Georgia Tech 6 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:37 Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 15 yards 0% MER +1.1 pts
Q2 9:56 Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 9 yards 0% MER +1.3 pts
Q2 5:23 Offside on Mercer, 6 yards · pre-snap 0% GT +1.8 pts
Q2 3:35 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MER +4.0 pts
Q2 3:29 Pass Interference on Mercer, 13 yards 0% GT +2.7 pts
Q2 2:39 Illegal Snap on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MER +1.7 pts
Q2 1:03 False Start on Mercer, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GT +0.4 pts
Q3 11:23 Holding on Mercer, 10 yards 0% GT +1.9 pts
Q3 6:58 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Mercer, 15 yards 0% GT +1.4 pts
Q3 4:42 Holding on Mercer, 10 yards 0% GT +2.4 pts
Q3 2:43 Chop Block on Georgia Tech, 15 yards 0% MER +0.9 pts
Q4 12:14 Roughing the Passer on Mercer, 6 yards 0% GT +1.1 pts
Q4 10:44 Offside on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MER +1.0 pts
Q4 3:44 Holding on Mercer, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% GT +1.4 pts

When it happened

Georgia Tech’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Georgia Tech was ahead in it, below while Mercer was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% MER GT: Punt
2 Q1 12:05 Mercer was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +0% GT MER: Punt
3 Q1 2:13 Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +0% MER GT: Punt
4 Q1 1:16 Mercer fumbled and Georgia Tech recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% GT MER: Field goal
5 Q2 3:35 Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% MER MER: Punt
6 Q3 11:23 Holding on Mercer, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% GT GT: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:42 Holding on Mercer, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% GT GT: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:44 Holding on Mercer, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% GT GT: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mercer 0% · Georgia Tech 100%

Final margin
Georgia Tech by 33
Luck in points
6.3 for Mercer
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia Tech by 39.3
Replay with same day's form
Mercer 2% · Georgia Tech 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Mercer · Georgia Tech

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