Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Stanford at Duke, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Duke beat Stanford 35–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Duke wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Duke was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Stanford Cardinal | 7 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Duke about even · −1 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stanford wins 0, Duke wins 10.
- 1 STAN 20 DUKE 28
- 2 STAN 13 DUKE 28
- 3 STAN 3 DUKE 22
- 4 STAN 6 DUKE 28
- 5 STAN 20 DUKE 45
- 6 STAN 7 DUKE 35
- 7 STAN 3 DUKE 35
- 8 STAN 3 DUKE 40
- 9 STAN 7 DUKE 48
- 10 STAN 10 DUKE 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stanford wins 1% of them, Duke 99%. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stanford by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Duke by 17+ | 85.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Stanford 5 for 50 yards, Duke 9 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:00 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 2:48 | Holding on Stanford, 7 yards | +1% DUKE +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:52 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +2% STAN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 10:55 | Illegal Substitution on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:36 | Offside on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:29 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 15 yards | +1% STAN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:32 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +2% STAN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 10:01 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | +3% STAN +3.8 pts |
| Q3 9:22 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | +2% DUKE +2.0 pts |
| Q3 0:14 | False Start on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:17 | Roughing the Passer on Stanford, 15 yards | 0% DUKE +2.5 pts |
| Q4 4:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on Duke, 15 yards | 0% STAN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:52 | Unnecessary Roughness on Stanford, 13 yards | +1% DUKE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:57 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +2% STAN | DUKE: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 8:48 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% DUKE | STAN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:33 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% DUKE | STAN: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:00 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedFalse Start on Duke, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% STAN | DUKE: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 1:17 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +2% DUKE | STAN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:52 | Holding on Duke, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% STAN | STAN: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 4:38 | Stanford converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:01 | Holding on Duke, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% STAN | STAN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stanford 0% · Duke 100%
- Final margin
- Duke by 28
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 25.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Stanford 1% · Duke 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Stanford · 
Duke
More from Week 3 2026
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- SMU at Louisville LOU 41–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Maine at Boston College BC 22–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Mercer at Georgia Tech GT 44–11 · replay 98% for the winner
- Wagner at California CAL 49–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner