luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 18, 2026

Miami at Wake Forest, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Miami beat Wake Forest 33–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Miami wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Miami was a 91% favorite.

Final

Miami Hurricanes 33
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 20

September 18, 2026 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Miami −20.5

Luck index +17 Miami about even · −17 Wake Forest

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami wins 8, Wake Forest wins 2.

  1. 1 MIA 41 WAKE 3
  2. 2 MIA 52 WAKE 24
  3. 3 MIA 31 WAKE 7
  4. 4 MIA 41 WAKE 21
  5. 5 MIA 33 WAKE 16
  6. 6 MIA 30 WAKE 17
  7. 7 MIA 34 WAKE 26
  8. 8 MIA 38 WAKE 35
  9. 9 MIA 25 WAKE 30
  10. 10 MIA 10 WAKE 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami wins 83% of them, Wake Forest 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami by 17+43.0%
Miami by 9–1619.1%
Miami by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Wake Forest by 1–89.5%
Wake Forest by 9–164.8%
Wake Forest by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to Wake Forest: the final margin was Miami by 13, without the luck Miami by 14. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Weinberg, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Weinberg, 54 yds blocked · 47% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Miami 6 for 75 yards, Wake Forest 10 for 92 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 Holding on Miami, 8 yards 0% WAKE +0.5 pts
Q1 10:06 Face Mask on Wake Forest, 15 yards 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q1 9:44 Illegal Block on Miami, 10 yards +1% WAKE +1.1 pts
Q1 6:18 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +0.9 pts
Q1 3:58 Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yards +1% WAKE +1.6 pts
Q2 11:29 Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yards 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 13:09 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAKE +1.1 pts
Q3 9:18 Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 2 yards 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 7:49 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +2.9 pts
Q3 5:34 Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAKE +4.5 pts
Q3 4:02 Holding on Miami, 22 yards 0% WAKE +1.4 pts
Q4 13:27 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 7:14 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 6:29 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 3:07 Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAKE +1.1 pts
Q4 2:00 Offside on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts

When it happened

Wake Forest’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wake Forest was ahead in it, below while Miami was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:32 Miami converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +1% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:06 Face Mask on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:44 Illegal Block on Miami, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% WAKE WAKE: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:18 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +1% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:58 Roughing the Passer on Miami, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% WAKE WAKE: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:40 Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +1% MIA WAKE: Punt
7 Q4 9:20 Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +1% MIA WAKE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 8:51 Wake Forest was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +1% MIA WAKE: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami 100% · Wake Forest 0%

Final margin
Miami by 13
Luck in points
1.0 for Wake Forest
Luck-adjusted margin
Miami by 14.0
Replay with same day's form
Miami 83% · Wake Forest 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Miami · Wake Forest

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