Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Wagner at California, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
California beat Wagner 49–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, California wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff California was a 100% favorite.
Final
 Wagner Seahawks | 7 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 California about even · 0 Wagner
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wagner wins 0, California wins 10.
- 1 WAG 10 CAL 27
- 2 WAG 0 CAL 27
- 3 WAG 7 CAL 38
- 4 WAG 6 CAL 41
- 5 WAG 3 CAL 41
- 6 WAG 3 CAL 45
- 7 WAG 0 CAL 45
- 8 WAG 0 CAL 48
- 9 WAG 3 CAL 56
- 10 WAG 3 CAL 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wagner wins 0% of them, California 100%. The line is what actually happened: California by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wagner by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Wagner by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Wagner by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| California by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| California by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| California by 17+ | 98.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. McGough, 36 yds made · 78% expected
- R. Liszner, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- C. Meyer, 35 yds missed · 80% expected
- J. DiSalvatore, 32 yds blocked · 85% expected
- C. Meyer, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Wagner 4 for 40 yards, California 8 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:32 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAG +2.0 pts |
| Q1 9:43 | Roughing the Passer on Wagner, 15 yards | 0% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 7:59 | Holding on California, 10 yards | 0% WAG +1.1 pts |
| Q1 6:53 | Holding on Wagner, 10 yards | 0% CAL +1.7 pts |
| Q1 5:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on California, 15 yards | 0% WAG +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:58 | False Start on Wagner, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Holding on California, 10 yards | 0% WAG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:32 | Holding on California, 10 yards | 0% WAG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:18 | Holding on California, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WAG +4.4 pts |
| Q3 5:48 | Face Mask on California, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WAG +3.8 pts |
| Q3 2:02 | Ineligible Downfield on California, 5 yards | 0% WAG +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:00 | Holding on Wagner, 10 yards | 0% CAL +0.7 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Wagner converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:05 | Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 4:41 | Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:32 | California’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:43 | Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 0:14 | Wagner was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 13:28 | Wagner converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 12:39 | Wagner converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% CAL | WAG: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wagner 0% · California 100%
- Final margin
- California by 42
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- California by 38.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Wagner 0% · California 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Wagner · 
California
More from Week 3 2026
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- SMU at Louisville LOU 41–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Maine at Boston College BC 22–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Mercer at Georgia Tech GT 44–11 · replay 98% for the winner
- Stanford at Duke DUKE 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner