Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Stonehill at Massachusetts, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Massachusetts beat Stonehill 36–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Massachusetts wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Massachusetts was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Stonehill Skyhawks | 14 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Massachusetts about even · −3 Stonehill
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stonehill wins 0, Massachusetts wins 10.
- 1 STO 0 MASS 3
- 2 STO 3 MASS 10
- 3 STO 3 MASS 13
- 4 STO 0 MASS 12
- 5 STO 3 MASS 17
- 6 STO 3 MASS 20
- 7 STO 3 MASS 23
- 8 STO 0 MASS 23
- 9 STO 0 MASS 26
- 10 STO 0 MASS 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stonehill wins 3% of them, Massachusetts 97%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Massachusetts by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stonehill by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Stonehill by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Stonehill by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 24.9% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 55.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Morris, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- D. Morris, 55 yds made · 45% expected
- D. Morris, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Stonehill 5 for 47 yards, Massachusetts 9 for 98 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:37 | Roughing the Passer on Massachusetts, 13 yards | 0% STO +1.5 pts |
| Q1 3:26 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% STO +2.2 pts |
| Q1 0:09 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +1% STO +2.6 pts |
| Q1 0:04 | Holding on Stonehill, 10 yards | 0% MASS +1.4 pts |
| Q2 13:52 | Illegal Block on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% STO +2.2 pts |
| Q2 13:31 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% STO +2.5 pts |
| Q2 3:48 | False Start on Stonehill, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STO +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:57 | Offside on Stonehill, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:44 | Intentional Grounding on Stonehill, 12 yards | 0% MASS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Offside on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:24 | Tripping on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% STO +2.0 pts |
| Q3 0:13 | Face Mask on Stonehill, 15 yards | 0% MASS +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% STO +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:09 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +1% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:26 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% STO | STO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:38 | D. Morris made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 45% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before | +1% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 0:09 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% STO | STO: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:52 | Illegal Block on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% STO | STO: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:31 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% STO | STO: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:48 | Stonehill was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on Stonehill, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% MASS | STO: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 9:59 | Massachusetts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +1% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stonehill 3% · Massachusetts 97%
- Final margin
- Massachusetts by 22
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Massachusetts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Massachusetts by 12.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Stonehill 3% · Massachusetts 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Stonehill · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 3 2026
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin WIS 54–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Ball State at Liberty LIB 51–15 · replay 100% for the winner
- Akron at Minnesota MINN 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duquesne at Washington State WSU 48–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Iowa State ISU 55–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Ohio State OSU 59–3 · replay 100% for the winner