Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Bowling Green at Iowa State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat Bowling Green 55–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa State was a 93% favorite.
Final
 Bowling Green Falcons | 7 |
|---|---|
 Iowa State Cyclones | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Iowa State about even · 0 Bowling Green
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 0, Iowa State wins 10.
- 1 BGSU 7 ISU 28
- 2 BGSU 7 ISU 36
- 3 BGSU 0 ISU 35
- 4 BGSU 3 ISU 42
- 5 BGSU 3 ISU 45
- 6 BGSU 3 ISU 49
- 7 BGSU 7 ISU 56
- 8 BGSU 7 ISU 59
- 9 BGSU 7 ISU 63
- 10 BGSU 0 ISU 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bowling Green wins 0% of them, Iowa State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 48.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Iowa State by 17+ | 97.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 54 yds missed · 49% expected
- K. Konrardy, 39 yds made · 76% expected
- K. Konrardy, 40 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Bowling Green 5 for 42 yards, Iowa State 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:51 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 3:38 | Personal Foul on Iowa State, 15 yards | +1% BGSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:58 | Personal Foul on Iowa State, 15 yards | 0% BGSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:20 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BGSU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 11:20 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | 0% BGSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:12 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ISU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:10 | Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 15 yards | 0% ISU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:27 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ISU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:56 | Personal Foul on Bowling Green, 12 yards | 0% ISU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Iowa State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:49 | Bowling Green fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:51 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% ISU | ISU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 12:30 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 10:34 | Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +0% ISU | BGSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:19 | K. Konrardy missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 10 of 18 from 45+ before | +2% BGSU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 6:24 | Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +1% ISU | BGSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 3:38 | Personal Foul on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:14 | Bowling Green fumbled and Iowa State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% ISU | BGSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bowling Green 0% · Iowa State 100%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 48
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for Iowa State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 42.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bowling Green 0% · Iowa State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Bowling Green · 
Iowa State
More from Week 3 2026
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Houston at Texas Tech TTU 28–26 · replay 73% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Arizona ARIZ 42–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner