Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Iowa State Cyclones: luck and expected wins
Iowa State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.3 wins. Luck cost 0.3: the 46th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Iowa State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Southeast Missouri State | W 38–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 2 | @ Iowa | L 13–16 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 3 | vs Bowling Green | W 55–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Utah | L 17–31 | 4% | −4 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Iowa State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs West Virginia |  Iowa State by 13.9 | 81% |
| Week 6 · Oct 9 | at BYU |  BYU by 6.4 | 35% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Arizona |  Arizona by 0.9 | 48% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Oklahoma State | Iowa State by 13.1 | 78% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Baylor | Iowa State by 1.7 | 54% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Cincinnati | Iowa State by 7.7 | 68% |
| Week 12 · Nov 20 | at UCF | Iowa State by 1.6 | 54% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs Kansas State | Iowa State by 4.1 | 60% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Iowa State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.04 | +4.9 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.04 | +4.8 |
| Kicks | −0.08 | +5.0 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Iowa State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 11 | @ TCU | W 20–17 | 22% | +78 |
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Kansas State | W 24–21 | 31% | +69 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Kansas | W 38–14 | 49% | +51 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Iowa | W 16–13 | 52% | +48 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Arizona | W 39–14 | 77% | +23 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Iowa State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 9 | vs BYU | L 27–41 | 74% | −74 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Colorado | L 17–24 | 56% | −56 |
| 2025 Week 10 | vs Arizona State | L 19–24 | 38% | −38 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Iowa | L 13–16 | 24% | −24 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Cincinnati | L 30–38 | 9% | −9 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 5–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Kansas State | W 24–21 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 1 | vs South Dakota | W 55–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Iowa | W 16–13 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 3 | @ Arkansas State | W 24–16 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 5 | vs Arizona | W 39–14 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 6 | @ Cincinnati | L 30–38 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 7 | @ Colorado | L 17–24 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 9 | vs BYU | L 27–41 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 10 | vs Arizona State | L 19–24 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 11 | @ TCU | W 20–17 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 13 | vs Kansas | W 38–14 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 14 | @ Oklahoma State | W 20–13 | 92% | +8 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12: Arizona,
Arizona State, 
Baylor, BYU, 
Cincinnati, 
Colorado, 
Houston, 
Kansas, 
Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, 
Texas Tech, 
UCF, 
Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Iowa State have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.3 wins.
Was Iowa State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: −0.3 wins of luck, the 46th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Iowa State’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 6.8 wins, +1.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 2–2 from play worth 2.3 (−0.3).