Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Iowa State at Cincinnati, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Cincinnati beat Iowa State 38–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 9 of 10. Iowa State had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:38 left): Ineligible Downfield on Cincinnati, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Iowa State.
Final
 Iowa State Cyclones | 30 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Cincinnati about even · −9 Iowa State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa State wins 1, Cincinnati wins 9.
- 1 ISU 22 CIN 17
- 2 ISU 21 CIN 24
- 3 ISU 28 CIN 35
- 4 ISU 17 CIN 28
- 5 ISU 31 CIN 45
- 6 ISU 31 CIN 49
- 7 ISU 10 CIN 30
- 8 ISU 14 CIN 38
- 9 ISU 8 CIN 37
- 10 ISU 14 CIN 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa State wins 9% of them, Cincinnati 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa State by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 6.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 18.2% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 56.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Rusnak, 38 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Smith, 35 yds missed · 81% expected
Penalties: Iowa State 7 for 55 yards, Cincinnati 10 for 98 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:07 | Offside on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +1.6 pts |
| Q1 10:28 | Illegal Substitution on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:07 | Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +3% ISU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 6:10 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CIN +2.0 pts |
| Q2 10:12 | Illegal Block on Iowa State, 10 yards | +1% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Illegal Shift on Iowa State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% CIN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ISU +3.1 pts |
| Q3 9:53 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +5% ISU +3.6 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | Illegal Formation on Iowa State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:07 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 15 yards | +3% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:52 | Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +3% ISU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 13:16 | Ineligible Downfield on Cincinnati, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ISU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 12:38 | Ineligible Downfield on Cincinnati, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +9% ISU +3.8 pts |
| Q4 11:27 | Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +4% ISU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:14 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ISU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:04 | Face Mask on Cincinnati, 8 yards | 0% ISU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Delay of Game on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ISU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 9:53 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% ISU | ISU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 6:51 | Cincinnati fumbled and Iowa State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ISU | CIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 4:48 | Iowa State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ISU | ISU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 14:52 | Cincinnati was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% ISU | CIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:07 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CIN | ISU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:38 | Ineligible Downfield on Cincinnati, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% ISU | ISU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 8:19 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% CIN | ISU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 7:40 | Iowa State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +7% CIN | ISU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa State 47% · Cincinnati 53%
- Final margin
- Cincinnati by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Cincinnati
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa State 9% · Cincinnati 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Iowa State · 
Cincinnati
More from Week 6 2025
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Kansas State at Baylor BAY 35–34 · replay 67% for the winner
- Kansas at UCF KU 27–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- West Virginia at BYU BYU 38–24 · replay 93% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Arizona ARIZ 41–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner