Week 6 2025 · October 3, 2025
West Virginia at BYU, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat West Virginia 38–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff BYU was a 90% favorite.
Final
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 24 |
|---|---|
 BYU Cougars | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 BYU about even · −7 West Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Virginia wins 1, BYU wins 9.
- 1 WVU 41 BYU 34
- 2 WVU 24 BYU 28
- 3 WVU 21 BYU 30
- 4 WVU 30 BYU 42
- 5 WVU 28 BYU 44
- 6 WVU 9 BYU 28
- 7 WVU 12 BYU 35
- 8 WVU 14 BYU 40
- 9 WVU 14 BYU 47
- 10 WVU 10 BYU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
West Virginia wins 7% of them, BYU 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Virginia by 17+ | 0.5% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 11.3% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 16.0% |
| BYU by 17+ | 64.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Ferrin, 48 yds missed · 63% expected
- K. Hensley, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- W. Ferrin, 37 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: West Virginia 4 for 73 yards, BYU 10 for 67 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:59 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q1 9:19 | Personal Foul on West Virginia, 47 yards | 0% BYU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 9:19 | Personal Foul on West Virginia, 2 yards | +8% BYU +9.2 pts |
| Q2 12:17 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards | 0% BYU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:19 | Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 9 yards | +1% BYU +2.6 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:33 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% WVU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:15 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% WVU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:32 | Pass Interference on BYU, 15 yards | 0% WVU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:25 | Personal Foul on BYU, 7 yards | 0% WVU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 3:20 | Offside on BYU, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:37 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WVU +3.1 pts |
When it happened
BYU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:06 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% BYU | WVU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:58 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% WVU | BYU: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q1 9:19 | Personal Foul on West Virginia, 47 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on West Virginia, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +8% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:32 | West Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% BYU | WVU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 3:41 | BYU converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% BYU | BYU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 7:19 | Offside on BYU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% WVU | WVU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 2:02 | BYU fumbled and West Virginia recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% WVU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:22 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +1% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Virginia 0% · BYU 100%
- Final margin
- BYU by 14
- Luck in points
- 8.8 for West Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- BYU by 22.8
- Replay with same day's form
- West Virginia 7% · BYU 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
West Virginia · 
BYU
More from Week 6 2025
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Kansas State at Baylor BAY 35–34 · replay 67% for the winner
- Kansas at UCF KU 27–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Iowa State at Cincinnati CIN 38–30 · replay 91% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Arizona ARIZ 41–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner