luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025

Kansas at UCF, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

Kansas beat UCF 27–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. UCF had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to UCF.

Before kickoff Kansas was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:44 left): Face Mask on Kansas, 6 yards, worth 16 points of win probability to UCF.

Final

Kansas Jayhawks 27
UCF Knights 20

October 4, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: Kansas −4

Luck index +29 Kansas lucky · −29 UCF

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kansas wins 7, UCF wins 3.

  1. 1 KU 38 UCF 7
  2. 2 KU 33 UCF 10
  3. 3 KU 28 UCF 10
  4. 4 KU 21 UCF 7
  5. 5 KU 24 UCF 13
  6. 6 KU 21 UCF 14
  7. 7 KU 17 UCF 14
  8. 8 KU 17 UCF 20
  9. 9 KU 21 UCF 30
  10. 10 KU 16 UCF 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kansas wins 71% of them, UCF 29%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kansas by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kansas by 17+29.6%
Kansas by 9–1620.2%
Kansas by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation5.4%
UCF by 1–814.6%
UCF by 9–167.7%
UCF by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to UCF: the final margin was Kansas by 7, without the luck Kansas by 10.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Ruelas, 38 yds made · 78% expected
  • N. Ruelas, 38 yds made · 78% expected
  • L. Marjan, 33 yds made · 85% expected
  • L. Marjan, 41 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kansas 8 for 41 yards, UCF 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:05 Illegal Motion on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% UCF +1.7 pts
Q1 1:09 Offside on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.5 pts
Q2 10:28 Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% KU +2.1 pts
Q2 3:23 False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.5 pts
Q2 0:56 Illegal Substitution on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:56 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KU +0.4 pts
Q3 7:43 False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +0.6 pts
Q3 3:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCF, 15 yards +3% KU +0.9 pts
Q3 1:07 Offside on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% UCF +0.7 pts
Q3 0:19 False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.7 pts
Q4 10:47 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KU +0.5 pts
Q4 9:48 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KU +0.5 pts
Q4 5:34 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KU +0.5 pts
Q4 2:44 Face Mask on Kansas, 6 yards +16% UCF +2.8 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while Kansas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:55 Kansas was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% UCF KU: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:01 L. Marjan made a 41-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him +7% UCF KU: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:05 UCF fumbled and Kansas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% KU UCF: Punt
4 Q4 6:37 UCF was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +7% KU UCF: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 5:49 UCF converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% UCF UCF: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 4:28 UCF converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% UCF UCF: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 2:44 Face Mask on Kansas, 6 yardsJudgment calls +16% UCF UCF: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:52 UCF was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% KU UCF: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kansas 94% · UCF 6%

Final margin
Kansas by 7
Luck in points
3.5 for UCF
Luck-adjusted margin
Kansas by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Kansas 71% · UCF 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Kansas · UCF

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