Week 6 2025 · October 4, 2025
Kansas State at Baylor, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
Baylor beat Kansas State 35–34, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10. Kansas State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Kansas State.
Before kickoff Baylor was a 61% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:31 left): C. Hawkins made a 53-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to Baylor. The biggest single swing (Q4, 4:28 left): Return touchdown by Baylor.
Final
 Kansas State Wildcats | 34 |
|---|---|
 Baylor Bears | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Baylor lucky · −33 Kansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas State wins 3, Baylor wins 7.
- 1 KSU 45 BAY 24
- 2 KSU 45 BAY 35
- 3 KSU 24 BAY 20
- 4 KSU 21 BAY 23
- 5 KSU 31 BAY 35
- 6 KSU 37 BAY 45
- 7 KSU 27 BAY 38
- 8 KSU 31 BAY 45
- 9 KSU 24 BAY 44
- 10 KSU 10 BAY 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas State wins 33% of them, Baylor 67%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas State by 17+ | 8.8% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Baylor by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Baylor by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Baylor by 17+ | 25.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hawkins, 30 yds made · 86% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 49 yds made · 58% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 22 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Hawkins, 53 yds made · 49% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 56 yds blocked · 46% expected
Penalties: Kansas State 3 for 40 yards, Baylor 7 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:29 | Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yards | +2% KSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:13 | Penalty on Kansas State, 10 yards | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:23 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards | +2% BAY +1.0 pts |
| Q2 4:23 | False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KSU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:17 | Personal Foul on Baylor, 9 yards | +3% KSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:20 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +4% KSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:14 | Face Mask on Baylor, 14 yards | +12% KSU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 15 yards | +5% BAY +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% KSU +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:17 | Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards | +4% KSU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Baylor’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 7:59 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 6:28 | Kansas State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 4:28 | Return touchdown by BaylorSpecial teams | +50% BAY | BAY: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 4:14 | Face Mask on Baylor, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +12% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 1:51 | Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% BAY | KSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:10 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% KSU | KSU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:31 | The game turned hereC. Hawkins made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +17% BAY | BAY: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | L. Rodriguez had a 56-yard field goal blockedKicks · 46% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before | +13% BAY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas State 16% · Baylor 84%
- Final margin
- Baylor by 1
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Kansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Baylor by 6.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas State 33% · Baylor 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Kansas State · 
Baylor
More from Week 6 2025
- Colorado at TCU TCU 35–21 · replay 41% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Houston TTU 35–11 · replay 45% for the winner
- Kansas at UCF KU 27–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Iowa State at Cincinnati CIN 38–30 · replay 91% for the winner
- West Virginia at BYU BYU 38–24 · replay 93% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Arizona ARIZ 41–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Virginia at Louisville UVA 30–27 · replay 19% for the winner
- Oregon State at App State APP 27–23 · replay 20% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Delaware WKU 27–24 · replay 23% for the winner
- UNLV at Wyoming UNLV 31–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at Rice FAU 27–21 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ohio at Ball State BALL 20–14 · replay 38% for the winner